Kobe Bryant’s 3rd Quarter Minutes: The Tipping Point

Preseason Media: “How many minutes will Kobe Bryant play per game?”

Byron Scott: “Somewhere between 30-40 minutes.”

Coach wasn’t lying. Kobe is averaging 35 minutes per game, 13th amongst NBA players. The Lakers are already behind the 8-ball with their lack of talent, but hero ball in the 4th quarter makes fans question the Lakers offensive strategy.

ESPN reports the Lakers want to give Kobe more rest in practice. That might help, but the last time Kobe was granted extended time in practice off they were swept out of the playoffs by Dallas in 2011, Phil’s last season. Most critics believe the Lakers have to choose: continue to rely on Kobe or sit him in favor of developing younger talent. What’s agreed upon is the outcome: missing the playoffs and fighting for the top pick in the lottery.

So the question is: how do you rest Kobe, but at the same time help the Lakers chances of winning?

Answer: reduce his 3rd quarter minutes to keep him fresh for the 4th quarter.

The solution seems too simple, but here’s the data:

Watch Byron Scott’s substitution pattern in the first half versus the second half. Ed Davis and Nick Young enter the game around the 6 minute mark in the first half usually for Carlos Boozer and Wes Johnson. Kobe usually plays until around 2 minutes left in the 1st quarter or finishes off the quarter and enters halfway through the 2nd quarter. Yet in the second half Kobe usually plays the entire 3rd quarter, rests for a couple of minutes and plays almost the full 4th quarter.

Kobe is 36 years old coming off 2 major injuries, so no matter how superhuman he is or how strong his will can be, this is a mismanagement of his minutes. No player, including Kobe, should be relied upon as heavily in the 4th quarter to deliver a team to victory. Despite his stats, Kobe is still one of the most clutch athletes in sports when fresh. Playing him the entire 3rd quarter means he’s tired in the 4th and at the end of the game is when you need him to knock down mid-range jumpers. How can he do that effectively on tired legs?

Instead here is a “minutes” proposal for Byron Scott:

Kobe plays 8 minutes in the 1st quarter and subs out around the 4 minute mark left.

He re-enters the game around the 6 minute mark in the 2nd quarter and finishes out the half.

Kobe plays 6 minutes in the 3rd quarter and rests until the end of the 3rd.

He re-enters with 6 minutes to play in the 4th and closes out the game.

That equals 26 minutes on paper so if Bryant’s hot leave him out there an additional 4 minutes and he’s at the 30 minute mark. Not only do the Lakers need to know how to play with Kobe, they also need to produce and gel together when he’s off the court. Chemistry can’t be built when it’s focused on one individual. Players get into a flow when they have time on the court together.

This strategy would benefit players like Jeremy Lin, Jordan Hill, Ed Davis and Jordan Clarkson who can score, but tend to defer to Bryant when he’s on the court. This isn’t meant to be a shot at Bryant because if the game is close and he has single coverage, he should shoot the ball. But when his teammates lack confidence to perform because of the lack of touches, coaching can intervene and put players in the right spots for team success.

There’s no doubt Kobe needs help on the offensive end, but the easy way to lower his shots per game is play him less minutes. In the Lakers 3 wins, he’s only averaged 2 less shots per game (22) versus in losses (24), but if you look at his minutes, he’s only played less than 30 twice (the first two games which were blowouts against Houston and Golden State). Kobe is a volume shooter. He’s going to get shots up until he retires. He’s more concerned with scoring than stats.

Imagine if Kobe averaged around 26-30 minutes a game using this substitution pattern. Not only would the team be less dependent on him, but he’d also be rested in the 4th to perform at an elite level in close games. During this season it’s easy to point out what’s wrong with the Lakers, but in reality it’s minor tweaks that create big changes. Reduce Kobe’s minutes and increase the Lakers chances of winning.