After winning three games in a row, things got a little scary for the Lakers and their draft plans. The Lakers now hold a 4.5 game lead on the Denver Nuggets to remain in the top five for the 2015 NBA Draft. The Nuggets are going to give the Lakers a run for their money as they have now lost five out of their last six games. Regardless of what other teams do, the odds of the Lakers losing their first round pick are very slim so don’t worry Laker fans.
The NBA draft lottery doesn’t promise anything, so whether the Lakers have the first pick, or the fifth pick, the only thing that can be assured is that the Lakers are selecting a player that will hopefully play alongside Julius Randle for the next 10-15 years. The four-headed monster of this years’ draft class of Jahlil Okafor, Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell, and Emmanuel Mudiay give the Lakers several options looking into the future. We’ll rank which of those four best fit with Randle, as the fifth member of the top five is a spot that is up for grabs.
First, let’s analyze Julius Randle, so we know exactly what type of player we are talking about. Randle is a 6’9″ 250 pound freak of nature from Kentucky who the broke his leg in his first game of the season against the Clippers. Because of this we can only look at Randle’s preseason and his lone year at Kentucky. Randle’s biggest flaw coming into the NBA was his lack of an outside shot, as he only made three 3-pointers in 40 games playing for Coach Calipari. In fact, Randle had yet to make a jump shot nine games into the season, when Draftexpress.com released their scouting report video on him.
Randle did not make a 3-pointer in the preseason either but did show some confidence in his mid-range game, even though he failed to connect on a majority of his attempts.
Randle’s other flaw is his inability to protect the paint. Randle’s 6’11” wingspan is not what GM’s look for when drafting the ideal big man. Combine that with an average max-vert of 35.5 inches, and Randle can be a bit of a liability down low on defense. Take a look at this play:
Keep in mind that Russ Smith is listed at 6’0″, and very easily may be shorter than that.
However, a top ten prospects has to have some strengths. There are parts of Randle’s game that had GM’s such as Mitch Kupchak raving. To start with, Randle has great mobility for his size. He can run the floor, and beat his man off the dribble and get to the rim. Randle got into the paint with ease at Kentucky, and his 289 free throw attempts finished first in the SEC, and seventh nationally.
Randle was also one of college basketball’s best rebounders, finishing second in the nation in defensive rebounding, and fourth in offensive rebounding. Randle’s strength allows him to box out his man and get better positioning than anybody on the court. Randle is not what you would call the prototypical modern-NBA rebounder like DeAndre Jordan, or Anthony Davis. Instead, he is more like Zach Randolph, or Kevin Love, and uses his body, and anticipates where the ball is going to go.
Lastly, Randle has the potential to be a very good pick and roll player in the NBA on both sides of the ball. His quickness for his size allows him to handle NBA’s guards on switches while his strength and finishing abilities allow him to be a threat on the roll.
Now that we have our constant variable, let’s look at who will best compliment Randle’s game.
Next: Jahlil Okafor
Feb 25, 2015; Blacksburg, VA, USA; Duke Blue Devils center Jahlil Okafor (15) drives to the basket past Virginia Tech Hokies forward
Christian Beyer(22) in the first half at Cassell Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Michael Shroyer-USA TODAY Sports
4. Jahlil Okafor
I’m sorry Laker fans, but the likely number overall prospect is the worst fit to play alongside Julius Randle.
This has nothing to do with Okafor’s game but Randle’s. Okafor is the most dominant post player that college basketball has seen in quite some time and will have no problem translating his game into the NBA. Okafor’s size, footwork, and soft touch make him the ideal post player in a league that has a small number of them. The worst thing to do with a post player is to pair him with a player that might take up some operating space, and Randle will do nothing short of that.
Randle’s jumper is a huge work in progress. Randle does a large portion of his damage down low, whether he is posting up, or driving to the basket. When Randle is posting up, where does Okafor go? And vice-verca?
I have no problem with building a team around a dominant center but that means making a few sacrifices. Take a look at the Detroit Pistons. Stan Van Gundy has made it clear that the future is in the hands of Andre Drummond and he will be their “guy” on the offensive end. Josh Smith didn’t exactly complement Drummond’s game. Because of Smith’s inconsistent jumper, teams could pay much more attention to Drummond and leave Smith unguarded to go double-team.
Then, you look at a team like the 2009 Orlando Magic who were built around the best center in the NBA at the time, Dwight Howard. Howard was surrounded by Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu, Jameer Nelson, and Courtney Lee. You take your pick but I’m not leaving any of these guys free in 2009.
The point is, if a team is going to build around a post player, a majority of their players must be able to space the floor, most importantly the power forward. Having a power forward who cannot shoot makes it way to easy to double-team the post player, in this case Okafor.
Another problem is that neither of these players present much of a threat to protect the rim at the NBA level. We already discussed Randle but Okafor’s block percentage of 4.3, ranking only tenth in the ACC, is very poor considering his size and heavy playing time. Okafor averages only 1.4 blocks per game which does not even place him in the top 100 in the country.
With the way guards attack the rim nowadays, winning a championship with no rim protection is impossible.
Next: Emmanuel Mudiay
Mar 18, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Emmanuel Mudiay of Prime Prep Academy poses for a portrait. He is a finalist for the USA Today Player of the Year Award. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
3. Emmanuel Mudiay
Mudiay’s scouting report is limited due to the fact that he went to China instead of playing in college. All we can use is his stats, and what others are saying about him.
There is no doubt that Mudiay’s jumper would be sub-par on the NBA level but it is not as bad as people say it is. Mudiay shot a respectable 32.4% from deep in China which is a solid starting point for improvement. However, Mudiay did shoot 58.5% from the free throw line. It is safe to say that Mudiay’s jump shot won’t be consistent until a few years into the league.
Mudiay does attack the basket with great speed and tenacity, much like Russell Westbrook and John Wall. Mudiay might be the best athlete in draft, meaning that his ceiling is VERY high.
But, the problem is that some players never develop a jump shot that GM’s hope for. There is no way to analyze Mudiay’s work ethic which will be the most important part of his development. There is always the possibility that Mudiay could fail to put the necessary work in to become a knock-down shooter which is the reason why he is only three on this list.
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Although Jordan Clarkson is showing great potential at the point guard position, drafting Mudiay would likely slide Clarkson over to the two spot, making Mudiay the primary pick and roll ball handler. A pick and roll between two below average shooters can be easy to defend. The guard can simply go under the screen and the big man guarding Randle could just sit in the paint and let Randle come to him.
The NBA has become a league of outside shooting. Building around two players who are below average shooters may hold the team back from becoming a championship team again. The more floor spacers a team has, the better. Just look at the Golden State Warriors and Atlanta Hawks. They are doing pretty well this year. Take a look at the Memphis Grizzlies last year, a great team that could not be considered a true contender because of their outside shooting woes.
Although, Randle and Mudiay would not necessarily be a “bad” pair, Towns or Russell would be much better.
Next: D'Angelo Russell
2. D’Angelo Russell
Bringing in Russell would put the Lakers in a bit of a situation with two young, combo guards. This has actually become very popular in the NBA as the Thunder made it famous with Russell Westbrook and Reggie Jackson over the last few seasons. Regardless of what position Russell plays, he and Randle would compliment one another quite nicely.
Russell is one of the best shooters in the draft. Russell shoots a staggering 42.4% from three point land and can shoot off the dribble or catch and shoot. Russell’s ability to shoot off the dribble is much like Stephen Curry.
Russell is also one of the best passers in college basketball, averaging 6.4 assists per 40 minutes. Russell has made headlines with his mind-blowing court vision passes like this. His long range, combined with his handles, and court vision, makes a perfect compliment to Randle in the pick and roll game. If defenders decide to go under the screen, Russell will just do this with ease:
Russell is able to make the difficult passes that most other guards at his age cannot make and should get Randle plenty of easy looks. Believe it or not, this could be a pick and roll combo similar to that of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin (without the Griffin jumper). Russell, like Paul, can step back and hit the three, come around and hit the shot, or get to the basket. Randle, like Griffin, is nearly impossible to stop with momentum, and can finish in traffic. Having a dominant pick and roll game is essential as a base of a modern day NBA offense.
Russell and Mudiay are clearly this year’s top two guard prospects but it is a no-brainer as to who would best fit with Randle, and the team in general. Russell’s rare skill-set makes him a low risk, high reward type of player who can make all of his teammates better, especially a physical specimen like Randle.
If Randle can improve his jumper then there would be no way to defend these two at the same time.
Next: Karl-Anthony Towns
Feb 21, 2015; Lexington, KY, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Karl-Anthony Towns (12) shoots the ball against Auburn Tigers guard
Malcolm Canada(00) in the second half at Rupp Arena. The Kentucky Wildcats defeated the Auburn Tigers 110-75. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports
1. Karl-Anthony Towns
Here you have it, potentially the next dominant front court in the NBA. However, the Lakers would likely have to receive a top three pick in order to be in prime position to select the phenom from Kentucky. Towns is everything that Randle is not. He is extremely long, with a 7’3″ wingspan, an elite shot blocker, and can spread the floor.
Let’s start with the shot blocking ability of Towns. He is part of the 1-2 punch along with Willie Caulley-Stein that anchors the most dominant defense in college basketball. Towns statistics speak for themselves on the defensive end. First of all, Towns only plays about 20 minutes per game, so per 40 stats are more effective when measuring Towns’ impact. Towns averages a ridiculous 4.6 blocks per 40 minutes and is 2nd in the SEC in blocks per game. Towns leads the nation in defensive efficiency and is seventh in block percentage.
Every elite NBA team needs a rim protector and Towns will definitely be that guy.
Towns’ hasn’t gotten the chance to show off his jump shot in college but when he does it looks pretty good. He has a good touch and a high release point. Town’s jumper will only get better and the better it gets the more room Randle will have to bully his way inside.
Towns and Randle can both run the court very well. Having to worry about two big men running the court would be a nightmare for opposing teams, as their big men would run out of gas by the end of the game. Letting Clarkson develop as the primary ball handler, running pick and rolls with two promising big men, sounds very promising as a core for the future.
Towns and Randle would form a ridiculous rebounding duo. Towns averages 12.9 rebounds per 40 minutes and is second in the SEC in rebounding percentage.
Most teams in the NBA don’t have one dominant big man down low. Imagine if the Lakers had two. Randle and Okafor have too many common issues. The good thing about Towns is that he makes up for all of Randle’s weaknesses. Why not build a team the old school way? Add in a couple of shooters and a perimeter scorer to a pair of monster big men and the Lakers rebuilding process might not take so long.