Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; A general view as the names of the first round draft picks are displayed above the stage during the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Lakers fans, our terrible season is finally over. Well, it’s practically over. There are technically one game left in the season, which is against the Sacramento Kings. But the most compelling issue of the Lakers season -losing enough to maintain their top 5 pick- can be finally put to rest. Fans who wanted the Lakers to tank and fans who wanted the Lakers to win every game possible can finally set aside any differences and just embrace reality. And that reality is, the Lakers are the fourth-worst team in the NBA. Now, all Lakers fans have to do is to wait for May 19, which is the date for the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery. That is the day when the Lakers draft fate is determined.
What does being fourth-worst mean?
The only fact guaranteed in this upcoming draft is that the Lakers will finish with a top-7 pick. Because the Lakers finished fourth- worst, the odds for each pick go as follows:
1st Pick: 11.9%
2nd Pick: 12.6%
3rd Pick: 13.3%
4th Pick: 9.9%
5th Pick: 35.1%
6th Pick: 16.0%
7th Pick: 1.2%
Unless there is a complete disaster, the Lakers will find themselves holding on to the pick. All together, the Lakers have roughly a 82.2% chance of keeping the pick, and a 37.7% chance of finishing in the top 3. Lakers fans can wholeheartedly say: “Our next star is 82.2% coming.” The season-long debate of Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns will finally be answered in a little more than a month. For those who want to, it is fun to play ESPN’s or Tankathon’s simulated mock draft and see where the Lakers fall and who they select.
This isn’t going to stop Lakers fans like myself worrying about the outside chance that the Lakers will lose the pick. There are many conspiracy theories regarding the NBA lottery being fixed, with the most recent being the NBA paving the way for LeBron James to return to Cleveland.
So let’s take a look at the last five NBA Drafts and let’s see where the team with the fourth worst record landed and most importantly, check the odds of the team that eventually landed the number one pick.
Next: The Cavs Are Spoiled
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver (middle) poses with draft prospects in attendance before the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
2014 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Odds of the team that landed the number one pick:
Cleveland finished with the 9th worst record overall, ending up 33-49. They had a 1.7% chance of winning the lottery, and astonishingly, they won it. What’s crazier is that they won the lottery in back-to-back years. Cue the conspiracy theories. They selected Andrew Wiggins, but he was quickly traded to the Timberwolves for Kevin Love.
Where did the fourth worst record in the league land in the draft:
Because Cleveland found a way to the top, everyone else got knocked down a spot. Therefore, the Utah Jazz, who finished fourth worst with a 25-57 record, got bumped to the fifth slot. They ended up selecting Dante Exum, who was known as wildcard in the draft.
Next: Dan Gilbert Is One Lucky Man
Jun 27, 2013; Brooklyn, NY, USA; is selected as the number one overall pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers during the 2013 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
2013 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Odds of the team that landed the number one pick:
This makes sense that Cleveland won the top spot. They ended up 24-58, finishing with the third worse record. Cleveland had a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery, only passing the Magic and the Bobcats to get there. However, they selected Anthony Bennett, who was also included in the deal for Kevin Love.
Where did the fourth worst record in the league land in the draft:
The Phoenix Suns finished with a record right under the Cavs at 25-57, earning the fourth worst spot. The Suns got jumped by Cleveland and Washington on lottery day, sending them down to the 5th spot in the lottery. Phoenix ended up taking Alex Len, who has been hampered by injuries so far in his career.
Next: The Fight For The Brow?
Dec 14, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans forward Anthony Davis sitting out with a chest contusion watches from the bench during the first quarter of a game against the Golden State Warriors at the Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
2012 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Odds of the team that landed the number one pick:
The New Orleans Pelicans, who at the time were the Hornets, finished with the fourth worst record at 21-45, having a 13.7% chance of winning the lottery. They went on to select Anthony Davis, who is now the newest up-and-coming star in the NBA.
Where did the fourth worst record in the league land in the draft:
Yes, the Pelicans finished fourth worst, just like the Lakers will finish! Lakers fans, when the 2015 lottery day comes in a little more than a month, cross your fingers, toes, etc. for a 2012-like finish.
Next: Seriously?! The Cavs Again!
Apr 5, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) celebrates in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bulls at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
2011 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Odds of the team that landed the number one pick:
The Los Angeles Clippers finished 32-50, claiming the 8th worst spot. They had a 2.8% chance to win the lottery, surpassing teams such as Minnesota and Cleveland on the way to the top. But wait, the Clippers traded that pick to Cleveland before the draft (as well as Baron Davis) to get Mo Williams and Jamario Moon! Cleveland wins again, and this time they also get the fourth overall selection with their own pick. Oh, brother.
Where did the fourth worst record in the league land in the draft:
The Washington Wizards finished fourth worst, ending up 23-59. On lottery day, they got jumped by Cleveland and New Jersey, two teams who had better records. As a result, the Wizards got stuck with the 6th pick, taking Jan Veesly, who only lasted in the NBA for three years. Hopefully the Lakers don’t have similar fate as the 2011 Wizards.
Next: This Is The Lakers' Worst Nightmare
Apr 3, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) signals a play during the third quarter against the New York Knicks at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 101-87. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
2010 NBA Draft Lottery Odds
Odds of the team that landed the number one pick:
The Washington Wizards finished 5th worst with a record of 26-56, having a 10.3% of winning the lottery. On lottery day, they passed teams such as the historically bad Nets to get to the top. John Wall has proven to be a worthy pick for the Wizards, who is leading his team back into the playoffs for another year.
Where did the fourth worst record in the league land in the draft:
The Golden State Warriors finished 26-56, fourth worst. They were jumped by the Wizards and Sixers, two teams that were better than them. The Warriors were delegated the 6th pick, and wasted it on Ekpe Udoh, who has bounced around on many teams in his career.