Breaking down possible Lakers pick and 2016 NBA Draft prospect Ben Simmons
The 2016 NBA Draft is largely a crapshoot for the Los Angeles Lakers at this point. Even though they still maintain the second-worst record in the NBA at 11-45, the Lakers still are at risk of losing their first-round draft pick as it’s only top-3 protected. If the Ping-Pong balls don’t fall their way, there’s a possibility that the Lakers will have to send their pick to the Philadelphia 76ers.
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However, there is also still at least a decent chance that the lottery falls in favor of the Lakers as there’s a 55.8 percent chance that they wind up with a pick in the top-3 and a 19.9 percent chance that the Lakers get the No. 1-overall pick. If the latter is the way that things fortunately fall for LA, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that they would take LSU Tigers freshman Ben Simmons.
Simmons is the consensus best player in the 2016 NBA Draft and rightfully so. The Aussie transport now residing in Baton Rouge occupied that position before the season ever began and has only furthered that perception as his freshman season has moved forward.
However, it’s more than just the stats—no matter how impressive averaging 19.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 5.1 assists is for a college power forward—that make Simmons such a special NBA prospect. He also has tremendous upside at just 19 years old.
So, in the interest of optimism for the Lakers, let’s take a deep dive into Simmons as an NBA prospect, breaking down his offense, defense, physical tools, and his fit with the Lakers.
Next: Physical Tools
Physical Tools
What jumps off of the page when you talk about Simmons as a prospect is his height and build in relation to the skills that he shows. The LSU freshman stands at 6-10 and with a strong, NBA-ready frame. However, what’s more impressive than just that is the fact that Simmons is able to move so fluid and in control of his body at that size, something that’s become increasingly rare for players that big at his age.
Simmons is an absolute freak athlete, which plays into the control that he has over his body. The freshman forward seems to get that aspect of his arsenal downplayed to a certain degree when he gets lofty comparisons to the likes of LeBron James because he’s not on that level of athleticism. However, his speed and the fact that he posted a 41.5-inch max vertical before the season when working with LSU shows what he’s capable of as an athlete.
You can see his full athletic arsenal in regards to his quickness and leaping ability when he shows that he can make plays like this off of the perimeter driving into the lane:
If there’s one knock on Simmons in regards to what he brings to the table physically, it’s the fact that his wingspan isn’t particularly wowing for a player his size, measuring in at 7-0.25 in that regard. However, if that’s really the only knock on the young man, that speaks volumes about what an impressive prospect he is just in terms of his physical makeup.
Next: Offensive Breakdown
Offense
As seen when talking about his athleticism, Simmons is incredibly dangerous on the offensive end of the floor when attacking in the halfcourt. He has tremendous ball handling on the outside for a player at his size and position, especially in his ability to attack the rim. Throw in his athleticism and strength in relation to his size, he’s also incredibly difficult to contain once he gets to the rim.
However, the biggest strength of Simmons’ offensive prowess is his ability to facilitate and pass. If there’s any area that the Tigers frosh is comparable to LeBron, it’s in this area. He has the strength to make passes that most 19-year-olds are unable to, but also has the fantastic court vision to see the outlets and lanes to make those passes happen:
As you can see with that outlet pass and could guess with how he can attack in the halfcourt off of the dribble, Simmons operating in transition is a thing of beauty. Not only can he run the break as a point forward and facilitate the play, but he’s just as dangerous running on the wing with his speed and athletic ability.
The biggest knock on Simmons offensively is his lack of shooting on the perimeter. He doesn’t take or hit on his jumper consistently, both of which are at least a tad troubling:
If you look at his form, though, his shot is far from broken at 19 years old. His mechanics need tuning, but they are more than workable moving forward as he transitions to the NBA and could easily develop in this regard moving forward.
Next: Defensive Breakdown
Defense
Because of how versatile he is and how much potential he’s shown as an offensive player, Simmons’ prowess on the other end of the floor might sometimes get overlooked to a certain degree. However, that should never be the case with what he’s capable of, starting with his effectiveness on the glass.
Simmons averaging over 12 rebounds per game through his freshman year is no mistake at all. He’s tremendously active in getting on the boards and reading angles of where the ball is going to come off. Moreover, he’s also regularly diligent in returns of finding a body and boxing them out, though he does show the lapses that young players tend to do.
Like on offense, though, Simmons’ versatility is an undeniable strength. He obviously has the frame and size to cause problems for opposing offensive players on the interior, but also possesses the quickness to step out on the perimeter and contain much smaller players that would blow by most guys his size, as seen on this play defending Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield as he switches on the pick-and-roll:
Of course, Simmons still shows the lack of commitment or awareness on the defensive end that many players his age do. Moreover, he’ll have to become more committed and not rely as heavily on his physical gifts as he transitions to the NBA. However, he has the makings of a truly devastating defensive player at any level.
Next: Mentality Breakdown
Mental Makeup
There are plenty of people around the league who question the mentality of Ben Simmons considering what he’s shown throughout his first season with LSU. He sometimes isn’t present on big possessions late in games and obviously his reluctance to shoot his jump shot are somewhat concerning to people. Though his opinion doesn’t hold much clout unless you love hot takes, Skip Bayless of ESPN also says that the freshman lacks “fire.”
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However, I see much of this criticism as completely invalid, though. If you’ll recall Andrew Wiggins coming into the 2014 NBA Draft, there were plenty of people who questioned his willingness to take over on the floor and similar criticisms that Simmons is now receiving. While Wiggins may not completely have the “alpha-dog” gene in his makeup as a player, but he did show that much of what scouts saw as a potential weakness in college was a product of Bill Self’s system at Kansas and the role Wiggins played.
Though LSU certainly isn’t Kansas, I don’t think the coaching in Baton Rouge has been particularly sound this season and think that it could be a similar situation happening in regards to Simmons. When he jumps to the pro level, I don’t see any issue with Simmons making the transition to the NBA from a mental standpoint.
Next: Fit With Lakers
Lakers Fit
Let’s just get this out of the way by saying that any team with the No. 1-overall pick is going to take Ben Simmons and there’s not much debate about it, regardless of fit. However, it’s worth noting in relation to the Lakers that Simmons doesn’t exactly fit easily into the team’s roster as it’s currently constructed.
With both Simmons’ and Julius Randle’s inability to knock down jump shots with any kind of consistency and both players unable to drop down to the five and hold down the center position in a lineup, it’s not much of a stretch to say that Randle and Simmons can’t wholly co-exist on the Lakers if Los Angeles were to be able to nab Simmons with the No. 1-overall pick.
If the Lakers do get the top-pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, though, taking anyone but Simmons would be a mistake and not be getting value for the pick. Subsequently, the better option would be to take Simmons and put Randle on the trade block and see what value he could return in regards to usable assets and future picks. What that return would be remains to be seen, but you have to assume it would be substantial.
Though it might seem trivial to a degree, it’s not unimportant that Simmons and Russell already have a relationship after playing together in high school. Considering they would be the core growing together in LA, their already somewhat built rapport could go a long way in their development in the NBA together.
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No matter how talented Randle is, the Lakers would be in a better position moving forward with Simmons, D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson (potentially), and whatever assets they could get for Randle. Now the only thing left to do is to somehow assure the Lakers get the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft so that they can get Simmons.