The 2016 NBA draft lottery is just a day away and a lot hinges on the how the ping pong balls come out for the Los Angeles Lakers
To say that the NBA draft lottery is a big day for the Los Angeles Lakers is an extreme understatement. Aside from Kobe Bryant’s now legendary last game on April 13, the date that has been forever embedded in Lakers fans minds since the start of the season was May 17, 2016; the day that the ping pong balls would determine the fate of their franchise.
55.8 percent is far from a sure thing, but a weighted coin toss is far more preferable than a regular one. Something fans often fail to realize when evaluating the Lakers’ situation is the fact that the team has a 19.9 percent chance of landing the first overall pick, only 5.1 percent less than the bottom dwelling Philadelphia 76ers.
Among fans the dynamic couldn’t be anymore different: there are those who pessimistically assume the Lakers will lose the pick in order to avoid devastation if that actually ends up happening and then there are others who have already started discussing what the Purple and Gold will do with their pick once they get it.
Representing the voice of reason in this situation, without further adieu, here are the best and worst case scenarios for the Los Angeles Lakers.
Next: Best Case Scenario
Best Case Scenario
This should come as no surprise, but the best case scenario for the Los Angeles Lakers is that the team defies all odds and not only keeps their draft pick but leaps up and snatches the coveted number one spot.
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From here, the possibilities are endless for the Purple and Gold: they could pick from either Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram, trade the pick for established veteran presence, or both, trade down for a lower pick AND a veteran player.
In Texas Hold’em, players often refrain from asking the Poker Gods for anything, saving their “one time” moment for when it matters most; for the Lakers, this is undoubtedly their “one time” moment.
Yes, giving up their pick this year will mean that they likely get their pick back come 2017 where the draft class is arguably much deeper, but who knows if the Lakers will even get a shot at a lottery pick come next season, let alone the number one pick.
Consolation Prize: A consolation prize for not winning the top spot would be landing the second overall pick and having the team in front of them draft the player that they are more likely to spurn, in this case Ben Simmons.
Depending on the team that lands first overall, this is actually a big possibility, bigger even than the Lakers 18.8 chance at landing the number two pick.
Next: Worst Case Scenario
Worst Case Scenario
Similar to the former, the worst case scenario for the Lakers is relatively simple to determine: losing the pick entirely.
When looking at the odds, though the Lakers have a 55.8 percent chance of landing in the top three — consisting of adding the percentages of getting the first (19.9 percent), second (18.8 percent) and third (17.1 percent) picks — their highest individual percentage is at landing the fourth overall pick (31.9 percent).
Moreover, history is not on the Lakers’ side as more often than not a team in Los Angeles’ position falls out of the top three. Take a look at the past 20 drafts for reference:
"During that 20-year period, the team with the second-worst record moved up to the top pick just once, way back in 1996. The 76ers used it to select Allen Iverson. Over the same 20 years, the second-worst team stayed in place and received the second pick of the draft only twice- the Knicks in 2006 and the Bulls in 2002. And in the last 20 years, the team in the pre-lottery number 2 position dropped to third pick five times, most recently Chicago in 2004. So that means over the last 20 years, teams in the Lakers position have finished with a top three pick only eight times, 40 percent of the time… which of course is far less than the odds of 55.8 percent."
We are well aware of the Gambler’s Fallacy, but those numbers aren’t encouraging by any means.
Adding insult to injury, the situation could get worse if:
- The Philadelphia 76ers get the first overall pick AND the Lakers’ pick
- The Boston Celtics somehow jump the Lakers and land the top pick
Next: Top 25 Free Agents the Lakers Should Pursue
The draft is only a day away, so until then we will get our fingers crossed.