Draft Success is Very Important for a Rebuilding Team. And with Potentially Two First Round Picks in the Upcoming Draft, There is a lot of Pressure on the Lakers.
For shipping Lou Williams to Houston, the Lakers were able to acquire their 2017 first round draft pick. The Rockets currently own the league’s fourth-best winning percentage. That would currently put the pick at number 27 in June.
These late draft picks can be key to the success of a rebuilding team. Recently, the Lakers have had some late draft success. Jordan Clarkson (46th pick), Larry Nance Jr (27th) and Ivica Zubac (32nd) are all viewed as fundamental parts of the young core that the Lakers have amassed.
Hitting the mark on this pick could be pivotal in the rebuild. This article will look at three prospects that would be realistic for the Lakers with the pick and analyze how they would fit with the team.
Caleb Swanigan: Purdue, Sophomore, Power Forward/Center 6’9”, 260lbs
Caleb Swanigan is a shorter PF/C, but that has not deterred him in the slightest. This can be seen when he was named to the Late Season Wooden Award watch list. There are a number of reasons why he has come upon the honor.
The best thing that Swanigan does is rebound. He is second in the nation with 12.5 boards per game and owns a 22.9% total rebounding percentage. There is a myriad of things that he does to achieve this. He plays powerfully and does not allow himself to get bogged down on smaller defenders trying to box him out. With an incredible nose for the ball, he is constantly hunting it, no matter where he is on the court. He also has an outstanding knowledge of how to make sure he is the right position to get the ball.
On offense, Swanigan became a top-notch scorer in between his freshman and sophomore year. This year he is averaging 18.6 points per contest, which is a serious improvement from 10.2 ppg as a freshman. The most significant reason for his improvement is his uptick in efficiency. He boasts splits of 54.0% from the field, 45.5% from three and 79.3% from the foul line. These are all improvements from his first season in West Lafayette.
He has become a multidimensional player on offense. With an outstanding sense of where the defender is and great positioning, Swanigan is almost always open in the post. While still able to overpower smaller defenders inside and bully his way to close shots and the foul line, he has expanded his range. His midrange game has become extremely proficient with his ability to turn and face and connect on a jumper even with a defender on him.
A willingness to step out to the 3-point line has been quite beneficial to him. He has made 30 treys on the year, good for 1.0 per game. Yet with such a small sample size, it is hard to tell if he can continue to shoot threes at this level in the NBA. Most of his attempts from outside the arc are wide open and in rhythm off of a pass. With a deeper line in the NBA and better closeouts I am skeptical that Swanigan will be able to keep his range at the next level.
Swanigan has also shown to be unselfish. He averages 2.8 assists per game, which is good for a big man. Those assists are also a product of the inside-outside game that is Purdue’s offense. He knows when to pass it out of the post to the open man. While those assist numbers are good, Swanigan must learn how to take care of the ball. This criticism is a reflection of his 3.4 turnovers per game and 18.8 turnover percentage. The better care he can take care of the ball, the easier it will be for him to find playing time early in his career.
On defense Swanigan needs improvement. He is good a post defender but is not often tested as a perimeter stopper. His quickness needs to improve if he is to play the four in the NBA and be able to keep up with the players of the small ball trend. As for rim protection, he offers little to none. Swanigan only averages 0.8 blocks per game and his block percentage of 2.4% is paltry compared to Oregon’s Chris Boucher’s 11.6 block percentage. Swanigan also rarely gets steals, as he has only racked up 12 on the year.
A lack of athleticism could also hinder Swaningan in the NBA. He has overcome it in college by being stronger and more skilled, but that won’t always happen in the NBA. This lack of athleticism will prevent Swanigan from becoming elite at rim running, which is a highly coveted aspect of big men in today’s NBA.
How productive Swanigan will be in the NBA is still up in the air. It will be harder for him to overpower bigger and stronger defenders in the NBA on offense. He will also have to become significantly better at defense with regard to either foot speed or rim protection if he wants to be a power forward or center respectively. His rebounding should translate because he does not rely on superior athleticism that would be not as significant a difference as it would be in college.
With regards to being on the Lakers, it would take a little bit to make Swanigan fit. I think that he is best at center, but pairing him with Julius Randle in the front court would have problems. Defense in the front court would become a bigger problem than it already is. There would be no rim protection, and with the defensive struggles at guard and wing for the Lakers, rim protection is something that they need desperately.
Offensively, it could work playing Swanigan and Randle together. If Luke Walton does want to turn Randle into a playmaking four, then Swanigan’s tough interior game should fit nicely. This is if one of them develops a consistent NBA three-pointer. If not then there would be no floor spacing and defenders could sag and help against our driving guards and forwards.
Swanigan would definitely help the Lakers with rebounding. With Randle averaging 1.8 rebounds less than he did last year an influx of glass crashing would be welcomed. His scoring ability would also be a nice service to add to the front court bench.
Luke Kennard: Duke, Sophomore, Shooting Guard, 6’5”, 180lbs
Luke Kennard made a significant leap between his freshman year and sophomore year at Duke. Many have taken note of this and Kennard is on the Wooden Award Late Season list. Kennard is also a top ten finalist for the Jerry West Shooting Guard of the Year award.
Coming out of high school, Kennard was a five-star prospect. He has lived up to that hype at Duke, averaging 19.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists this year. This production was unexpected out of him coming into this year. With Grayson Allen supposed to continue to ride his rising star and a stellar recruiting class, Kennard was going to be a role player on a national title contender. But instead, Kennard made it known that he was going to be the best player on this title contending team.
The best part about Kennard’s game is his scoring ability. He is an extremely consistent scorer. Through 30 games this season he has scored in double digits all but once he has had 15 outings scoring 20 or more points and has dropped 30 plus in games three times this season.
Kennard does this for a variety of ways. There is a misconception out there that he is only a shooter. While he is an outstanding shooter, 45.4% from three on 5.4 attempts per game, he can score in all sorts of manners. Throughout the season, he has demonstrated how effective he is on pull-up jumpers and shooting of the dribble. His shooting form is very pure with a high release that aides the potency of his shooting, both stationary and moving.
He can also attack the basket. Throughout the season he has become better at finishing moves. He uses a quick first step to get into the lane and then has options. Developing a floater has been big for him which allows him to finish over taller defenders and shot blockers. Kennard is also good at cutting off his defender with his body once he gets past him so the defender either has to foul or let Kennard go. When in the lane, Kennard has also shown a willingness and ability to kick the ball out to the open man.
Kennard is also good at playing through contact. He can complete and ones and make his free throws. So far this season, he is averaging 4.9 trips to the line per game and connecting on 84.5% of them.
Moving without the ball is another one of his strengths. He uses his court vision and awareness to create open three-point attempts and to set his man up for a drive.
There are some things that Kennard could improve with on offense. I would like to see him in more pick and rolls and attack the switch harder, instead of settling for a jump shot. It would also do him good to try and create more for his teammates. He is the primary scoring option at Duke, but showing an enhanced ability to create for others would send him up draft boards.
Moving to the other side of the ball, Kennard is not your next defensive stopper. He is a good defender while not great. His defensive potential is limited by his short wingspan, 6’5”, and athleticism. He plays hard and shows maturity which should help him in the short term, but in the long run he could end up getting exposed by elite offensive talent. Defensive playmaking is not his strong suit either, as he only averages 0.8 steals and 0.3 blocks per game.
Kennard could definitely improve on the defensive side of the ball. Many NBA players learn how to become better defenders over time. He will just have to make sure that he is listening to his coaches, studying film and working hard at it in the gym.
With the Lakers, Kennard could be a sound fit. With Jordan Clarkson embracing the sixth man role and Nick Young likely to be gone after this year or the next, the Lakers will have a hole at shooting guard. Kennard would bring some shooting into the lineup, which would be a big plus. If he can turn into another playmaker alongside D’Angelo Russell it just adds to his value.
Where it might struggle to work is on defense and athletically. Both Kennard and Russell are not elite athletes. They are both not defense first players. This could be a struggle for Walton to deal with, but with a great athlete in Clarkson coming off of the bench and Brandon Ingram helping them defensively, it could work.
Kennard will have a spot in the NBA. Where that spot is has yet to be determined. He could continue to be a great scorer or he might have already reached his full potential and will struggle to find playing time in the NBA.
Justin Jackson: North Carolina, Junior, Small Forward 6’8”, 193 lbs
We now move down Tobacco Road to Kennard’s rival, Justin Jackson of UNC. Jackson is also a candidate for the Wooden Award. Jackson is 21 years old which is a little old, but he has shown improvement in almost every aspect of his game between every one of his years at UNC.
As a freshman, Jackson only averaged 10.7 points per game and 30.4% three-point shooting, but now as a junior, he averages 18.4 points on 39.3% three-point shooting. This exhibits Jackson’s ability to improve year by year, so even though he is older, it does not mean he has reached his full potential.
Jackson’s previously mentioned scoring ability would be the main reason to draft him. He can shoot threes, get into the lane and play off the ball. With catch and shoot numbers of 1.15 points per possession, he his ability to make quick and contested jumpers is a useful skill, especially when playing alongside ball-dominant guards.
Catching and shooting are not Jackson’s only way of knocking down jumpers. This year he has shown off a full repertoire of shooting of the dribble. With step backs, shooting coming off screens and pull ups, he is also lethal with the ball in his hands.
Driving to the hoop and getting buckets another skill of Jacksons. Among the reasons he can do this is his length. Already being 6’8” is a big advantage over the smaller three-guard sets of college ball today, but his wingspan is what really sets him apart. Stretching 6’11” his arms reach as long as some centers. This allows him to finish above smaller defenders at the rim. It also helps him take care of mismatches. Taking smaller opponents into the post has added another dimension to his game. He has also developed a floater, which suits his wiry frame well.
Jackson rises to the occasion against tough competition. He had the best game of his career, 34 points, against a team loaded with NBA talent in Kentucky. He shot the three well, took Isaiah Briscoe into the post, went to work on him and drew fouls. In conference play, which is generally better competition than the preseason, he has upped his scoring to 19.2 points per game.
Taking care of the ball is another thing that Jackson does well. He only coughs it up 1.7 times per game despite having a 25.5% usage rate.
Now we must talk about the downsides of Jackson’s game. He is not an elite athlete. While light on his feet, he comes nowhere near the likes of Josh Jackson or OG Anunoby. Jackson is also very light. At only 193 lbs, it would do him some real good to put on some muscle and get stronger for the rigors of the NBA. Getting stronger would also improve his confidence for taking on contact. He only averages 3.2 trips to the foul line this season and some strength should get him more freebies.
He is also subject to offensive lulls. Against Virginia on 2/27, Jackson had an extremely poor outing in which he only scored 7.0 points on 30% shooting. UNC need his scoring punch in that game, as they only scored 43 points as a team, but he couldn’t deliver.
Jackson also has a low total rebounding percentage of 8.1%. This could likely be attributed to his slender frame. The Lakers need rebounding and Jackson doesn’t bring that much of it to the table.
On defense, Jackson has not shown to be a lockdown defender either. He is a good defender but not elite. Getting steals also seems to be a struggle for him as he only averages 0.6 swipes per contest.
All things considered fitting on the Lakers should be relatively easy for Jackson. The Lakers are in need of another scorer with the departure of Lou Williams and the likely exodus of Nick Young. Jackson cannot provide what those guys do right away, but he would be a step in the right direction.
Jackson could also fit in beside the other players. With ball dominant players such as Russell and Clarkson, Jackson’s ability to play off the ball would be a great asset for the team. He could also feasibly play alongside Ingram at the two.
What do you guys think? Who should the Lakers take with the Rocket’s pick? Let us know in the comments below!