Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James should make All-NBA, but just barely

Choosing three of the four

All four of my candidates are well-deserving of an All-NBA spot, both playing well individually and lifting their teams.

Blake Griffin (73) and LaMarcus Aldridge (79) have played significantly more games than their counterparts in LeBron James (55) and Kawhi Leonard (58).

As Devine points out, there have been only five instances since 2000 in which a player has played in 55 or fewer games and made an All-NBA team. James sits right on this threshold; Leonard should get to 60 games played so long as he finishes out the Raptors season, but his “load management” reason for sidelining himself should certainly hurt his case – even if that 60 number looks better.

Each player is putting up comparable raw statistics on similar efficiency, although LeBron emerges as the most well-rounded and Aldridge sinks as the least impressive. James is putting up 27.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.3 assists on a true shooting percentage of .588. Leonard has a 26.8, 7.4, and 3.3 split on .607 true shooting. Griffin averages 24.9, 7.7, and 5.4 on .584 true shooting. Aldridge posts 21.2, 9.1, and 2.4 on .573.

As for win shares, Kawhi added an estimated 9.3 wins to Toronto, Aldridge an estimated 8.8, Griffin had eight, and LeBron trailed behind with 7.2. Here is likely where Aldridge makes his strongest case for All-NBA and reveals his value to a Spurs team that has exceeded expectations this season.

However, Aldridge is the only member of this group that actually had his team performing worse when he was on the court, by 2.3 points per 100 possessions. Obviously, this number doesn’t tell the full story, but it remains a major blemish in his case, especially when the other three candidates made their teams much better.

Take LeBron, for instance, who leads this group significantly, helping LA outscore opponents by 8.4 points per 100 possessions. Leonard improved his team by 5.4 points and Griffin by 4.1 points.

Griffin’s number becomes even more impressive when one sees the Pistons, as a team, hold a negative net rating of -0.6. Without Blake making this team positive in his time on the floor, Detroit would be securely in the lottery, rather than a club that should make the playoffs.

The same could be said for LeBron – especially as people will point to the Lakers’ 28-27 record with him – but the fact is he wasn’t able to play enough to keep his team afloat. That is not his fault, but he should still be penalized for it.

This is why games played should be a major factor in the All-NBA conversation. As Washington Post’s Ben Golliver’s mantra goes: “The greatest ability is availability.”

Although Griffin does have the lowest PER (21.3) among them, which is only marginally lower than Aldridge’s (22.7), he was a reliable nightly contributor on a team that desperately needed him. His VORP (4.4)  is higher than Durant’s, and he trails only Giannis, George, and LeBron in that category.

Because of his importance to the Pistons and consistency in advanced statistics, I have him joining Durant on the second team.

Beyond him, I felt Leonard’s shooting efficiency, number of win shares, 26 PER, and 3.5 VORP rating to Aldridge’s 2.3 were impossible to ignore even with his number of missed games. I put him onto my first All-NBA Third Team spot.

The last spot, then, came down between James and Aldridge. Although Aldridge will have played in all but one game (assuming he finishes out the season) and had a higher number of win shares, James was a significantly better player in raw statistics, efficiency, PER, VORP, and on-off.

While Aldridge was more available and slightly more elite in terms of a very important category, LeBron’s extraordinary numbers across other statistical aspects put him over the top for me. But it’s extremely close. James just barely slips into that last Third Team spot over Aldridge.