Los Angeles Lakers: Three surprising predictions for this season

1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a breakout season

At this point, KCP is flying below the radar. Little is being written or said about him. His signing attracted sparse attention and expectations are low.

Before he joined the Lakers, he played four seasons with the Pistons, where he started about half the team’s games in his rookie year, averaging only 19 minutes per game. In the following three seasons, he averaged over 33 minutes a game, scoring 13.7 points per game and shooting a little over 40% overall while connecting on about 33% of his three-pointers. He was considered a plus defender although he never made an All-Defensive Team. Overall, he was good but not great.

In his two seasons with the Lakers, KCP has averaged 29 minutes and 12.4 points per game while shooting 36.5% from long distance. His defense, however, has been wildly inconsistent. At times he’s been a lock-down defender, but at others he’s been lackadaisical and frequently beaten by his opponent.

After six seasons of consistent offensive production, what you see in a player is usually what you get. Why would anyone expect him to be anything different?

Reason for the prediction: there are several factors hinting that he might step up this year. First, in the past two seasons, KCP was in the final or only year of his contract. Some players react well to that scenario and have career years. Others succumb to the pressure and don’t perform as well.

Caldwell-Pope now has a two-year contract (the second season is his option) so the pressure should be off. And as noted earlier, not much is expected of him this season. The Lakers have eight guards on the roster. He will almost certainly come off the bench and will have to prove he deserves whatever minutes he gets.

Second, he has had two consecutive schizoid years with the Lakers. In each one, he had a disappointing first half of the season, but then he played extremely well after the All-Star break.

He also had a few games where it seemed like he couldn’t miss from beyond the arc. Four times in his career he sank eight three-pointers in a single game, which ranks second on the Lakers behind Kobe Bryant. Yet there were other games when his shot selection left a lot to be desired, and his accuracy disappeared.

According to reports, he has worked tirelessly on his outside shot this offseason, seeking more consistency. His workouts have been highly encouraging. If that hard work pays off, his three-point marksmanship this coming season just might approach the 40% mark.

Also, new Coach Frank Vogel places a premium on good defense, and will insist that players give full effort on that side of the ball. That should motivate KCP to be better focused whenever he is on the court.

The Lakers might well employ a three-guard offense in their second unit with some combination of Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, Avery Bradley, Quinn Cook and Rajon Rondo. The ensuing match-ups could be favorable for KCP to exploit.

Despite low expectations, Caldwell-Pope just might surprise everyone and enjoy his best year in the NBA.