Los Angeles Lakers: Why Anthony Davis won’t sign a long-term contract

The biggest goal for the Los Angeles Lakers in the upcoming NBA offseason, whenever it officially begins, is to re-sign Anthony Davis. Davis has a played option in his contract, and because of his superstardom, he is going to opt-out for a bigger payday.

All signs seem to be pointing to Davis returning to LA. Right now, there are not any other teams that really make sense from a legacy and style fit, especially if there is unfinished business with the Lakers.

Before the season, some NBA analysts warned that being LeBron James’ teammate would take a toll on Davis and that could make him split from LA. I don’t think that is the case at all. Davis, from an outsider’s perspective, seems to be loving the Los Angeles Lakers.

Kyle Goon of the Orange Country Register even reported that ‘most’ in NBA circles think that the Lakers have already done enough to re-sign Davis this summer (h/t LakersNation).

So the question isn’t really whether or not the Lakers will re-sign Davis, but when and for how long. While fans might be expecting a long-term contract, that actually might not be in the case.

Anthony Davis will sign a short-term contract with the Los Angeles Lakers.

I think we are going to see Anthony Davis take a similar route that Kawhi Leonard did last offseason with his contract with the Los Angeles Clippers. Leonard signed a two-year max contract with a player option for the third year, so while his average salary is that of a superstar ($34.3 million), the Clippers are only getting two guaranteed years of him.

While it might not be all that appealing from a fan’s perspective, it makes the most sense for Davis this offseason to give himself flexibility as well as a potentially bigger pay day down the line.

The first component going into this is the NBA salary cap. The salary cap is not a fixed number and instead is based on the league’s income. Teams get 44.74 percent of what the expected basketball-related income is to allocate to the salary cap (plus things such as mid-level exceptions, veteran exceptions, etc.).

There are two components that are likely going to lead to a lower salary cap than expected next season: first, is the fallout from Daryl Morey’s now infamous tweet that sparked a global story between the Chinese government and the NBA.

Estimates indicate that Morey’s one tweet cost the league anywhere from $150-200 million in revenue.

The other thing to take into account is the current COVID-19 pandemic. The league undoubtedly losing attendance revenue, even if they figure out a way to return for the playoffs, and could lose out on serious TV revenue if they cannot salvage this season and play the playoffs.

Things should bounce back for the league in 2-3 years, however. So it makes sense for Davis to take the three-year contract with the possibility of opting out after two years in order to make more money in the long run, rather than committing to a four-year salary that might be considered low for his status by the time it is all up.

The other primary reason for Davis to only agree to a 2-3 year deal is to give himself the freedom in changing teams in the future. As unfortunate as it is, the current status of the league revolves around players team-jumping and forming new superstar duos and trios when things start to trend downward with their current team.

Team loyalty just isn’t as big of a deal as it was in the past and while Anthony Davis appears to be happy and committed to the Los Angeles Lakers right now, that could change in two or so years.

One component is LeBron James, as while he is still great, he could decelerate quickly without much of a warning as he gets up there in age and even he could leave after the 2020-2021 season (although doubtful).

His contract only goes until the 2021-2022 season, assuming he takes his player option. At that point, with all the money he has made, maybe he declines his player option, takes a pay cut and allows the Lakers to somehow bring in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

There are options for the team, both good and bad, and Davis signing a short-term deal gives himself the flexibility to either help the team down the line, earn more money in the future or even leave if LeBron declines and the team cannot land another star.

So while it appears to practically be a guarantee at this point that Anthony Davis will re-sign with the Los Angeles Lakers, I still would expect to be having this same conversation in two years.