Los Angeles Lakers: Examining Zach LaVine’s potential fit with the team

Does Zach LaVine fit on the Los Angeles Lakers?

During the extended NBA intermission, one of the fun ways to pass time has been to discuss potential trades. Of all the potential moves the Los Angeles Lakers could make, the move that was mentioned the most frequently was a trade for Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine.

In April, we even discussed what a deal for LaVine would look like, both in terms of why it would make sense for both teams, as well the assets likely to involved in a deal.

In this article, I will attempt to objectively analyze the pros and cons of LaVine’s fit with the Lakers. This exercise will be working under the assumption that no other major moves are made in the offseason (and no, I don’t consider re-signing DeMarcus Cousins a major move).

After all, if we were to somehow acquire elite talent elsewhere, for better or worse, the move would drastically change LaVine’s fit in with the purple-and-gold.

Would the man with the nickname “Young Hollywood” be the perfect third star alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis? Or would his presence in the Lakers’ backcourt prove to be addition by subtraction? Let’s find out!

Pros of Zach LaVine on the Los Angeles Lakers:

1. Gravity

Below is a statistical table of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, sorted by player three-point percentage.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Notice a trend here? Outside of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green, no regular rotation player is an above-average three-point shooter at a reasonable volume of attempts.

Meanwhile, the Lakers’ best two players, Anthony Davis and LeBron James, shoot 80.5% and 67.6% of their shots inside the three-point line respectively. A tertiary offensive option, one with immense offensive gravity and the ability to space the floor, would allow Davis and James to have cleaner looks from their favorite shooting spots.

Enter Zach LaVine.

According to Bball Index’s Player Gravity app, LaVine’s three-point gravity is in the 98th percentile (9th overall) in the entire league. As a comparison, KCP’s three-point gravity is in the 74th percentile, and Danny Green’s is in the 82nd percentile.

Player gravity appears to manifest itself as a combination of proficiency and volume. Case in point, LaVine’s three-point percentage is excellent for a volume shooter (8.1 attempts per-game at 38.0%), so even though his percentage is slightly lower than KCP’s and only slightly higher than Green’s, his three-point gravity is significantly higher than both.

LaVine’s sheer offensive gravity would force Laker opponents to pick their poison. His three-point prowess is made even more impressive when you realize that he’s currently in the 9th percentile in terms of the openness of his three-point attempts, and in the 0th percentile in terms of the talent of his teammates on the offensive end.

Imagine being forced to choose between leaving an elite contested shot-maker open or giving Anthony Davis and LeBron James the space to operate freely on the interior? That’s a nightmare scenario for any opponent.

2. A secondary ball-handler

Within the context of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, it can be argued that while Anthony Davis is the team’s best player, LeBron James is the team’s most important player. Case in point, the Lakers go from having a +/- differential of 8.1 with LeBron on the court to a +/- differential of -0.3 when he sits.

This alarming discrepancy highlights one of the most significant flaws with the current roster construction, lack of depth when it comes to offense initiators.

Rajon Rondo is still a very good passer and can run an offensive, but is a complete non-threat to score the ball, as evidenced by his offensive gravity being below 50% across the board. Avery Bradley is a valuable role-player, he’s just not a good secondary playmaker.

Alex Caruso surprisingly has potential in the role when you look at his per-75 possession numbers, but the problem is that the sample size is incredibly small.

On the surface, Zach LaVine profiles as a solid-not-great passer. His 4.5 assists per game, when viewed in the context of his 31.7% usage-rate (9th in the NBA), is mediocre, even compared to shooting guards with a reputation of ball-hogging like James Harden (7.4 assists per game and a 36.4% usage-rate).

However, raw assist statistics don’t take into account just how bad the 2019-20 Chicago Bulls are on the offensive end of the court. Don’t believe me? Through the first 59 games of the season, their most common starting lineup as per lineups.com was as follows:

• PG: Tomas Satoransky
• SG: Zach LaVine
• SF: Kris Dunn
• PF: Lauri Markannen
• C: Wendell Carter Jr

To date, Lauri Markannen is their second option and he’s averaging 14.7 ppg on 42.5% shooting. Yikes.

In determining the playmaking impact of individual players, some of my new favorite advanced statistics (all courtesy of BBall Index) are:

• Potential Assists per 100 passes – this one is significant as it mitigates the impact of having awful teammates who can’t finish shots.
• High-Value Assists per 75 passes – a high-value assist is defined as a three-point assist, a rim assist, or a free-throw assist.
• Box Creation – an estimate of open shots carved out for teammates by drawing defensive attention using box score metrics only.
• High-Value Assists +/- – a metric that assesses a player’s ability to generate high-value scoring opportunities for teammates relative to their passing aggressiveness and ball control.

In the context of the above statistics, LaVine ranks in the following percentiles:

• Potential Assists per 100 passes – 84%
• High-Value Assists per 75 passes – 77%
• Box Creation – 89%
• High-Value Assists +/- – 72%

LaVine is clearly no LeBron James (who ranks in the 99th percentile or above for 7 of BBall Index’s 8 advanced passing metrics) or even a Rajon Rondo when it comes to passing. However, it’s clear from the above statistics that he’s a surprisingly above-average playmaker, far more adept than his box-score would have you believe.

LaVine’s presence on the Lakers’ roster would with something that the team doesn’t currently have outside of James: a shot-creating wing who also doubles as a playmaker. If the coaching staff staggered James’ and LaVine’s bench minutes as much as possible, the offensive potential would be through the roof.

Unfortunately, it’s not all good news when it comes to assessing LaVine’s fit with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Cons of Zach LaVine on the Los Angeles Lakers:

1. He is an awful defender

For all his offensive firepower, Zach LaVine is not considered a superstar for two reasons.

1. He has never led a team to a winning record.
2. His defense is horrendously, horrendously bad.

Firstly, let’s look at LaVine’s advanced defensive statistics for the 2019-20 season.

• Defensive rating: 110
• Defensive box-score plus-minus: -0.8
• Defensive win-shares: 2.2

While these numbers certainly bad, these all actually represent the best defensive numbers of LaVine’s career and aren’t quite as putrid as I was expecting.

To paint a more complete picture of LaVine’s impact on team defense, let’s look at the Chicago Bulls’ team +/- with LaVine on and off the court.

• On-court (34.8 mpg): -3.2 ppg.
• Off-court (16.1 mpg): -0.1 ppg.

You’d expect the team to struggle without their best offensive player, yet the Bulls have actually been better in the limited minutes that LaVine has spent on the bench.

Looking at the advanced on/off-court statistics, the Bulls have the following offensive and defensive ratings with and without LaVine.

• On-court: Offensive rating of 106.8, Defensive rating of 111.2
• Off-court: Offensive rating of101.1, Defensive rating of101.2

As expected, LaVine has a significant impact on the offensive end, but the Bulls are significantly better on the defensive end when he sits. However, the Bulls are a unique situation, because the three major recipients of court-time when LaVine sits (Tomas Satoransky, Kris Dunn and Shaquille Harrison) all happen to profile as anywhere ranging from above-average to elite defensive players.

So, would Zach LaVine’s presence on the Los Angeles Lakers be addition by subtraction, courtesy of his bad defense?

According to BBall index player profiles, LaVine is actually above average when it comes to his real adjusted turnover rate (67th percentile), passing lane defense (67th percentile), defensive miles per 75 possessions (76th percentile), deflections per 75 possessions (55th percentile), steals per 75 possessions (77th percentile), and three-point contests per 75 possessions (53rd percentile).

However, he’s a poor defensive rebounder for someone with his athletic profile, is towards the bottom of the league at deterring shots (10th percentile from the perimeter, 20th percentile at the rim), and doesn’t hustle for loose balls (18th percentile for loose ball recovery rate).

The result: a Defensive Player Impact +/-  of -2.6, leaving LaVine in the 1st percentile of the entire league. Other defensive metrics aren’t as harsh, with RAPTOR placing him in the 29th percentile league-wide and Defensive RPM placing him in the 40th percentile, but no matter how you look at it, LaVine is a bad defender.

If the Lakers were to make a deal for LaVine, especially one that involves trading away one of their best defensive wings in Danny Green, they need to find ways to mitigate the horrible defense.

2. He may be a two-year rental

The other con to a trade to acquire Zach LaVine is the likelihood that he’s a two-year rental.

According to Spotrac, his contract pays him $19.5 million per year, through to the 2021-22 season. That means he’ll be entering unrestricted free agency at the tender age of 27.

LaVine is worth the risk on the surface due to his youth and offensive fit, but if he continues to produce strong numbers, it’s almost certain that he’ll try and command a max contract. Could he one day be a max-level player? Sure. He’s still very young and his athletic profile shows a lot of room for improvement on the defensive end of the ball. Is he even close to a max-level player right now though? Absolutely not.

Assuming LaVine continues to struggle on the defensive end and assuming the Lakers are subsequently smart enough to not make him a max-player, that begs the question: is LaVine worth a two-year rental if there are no championships won during that span?

While the Lakers are unlikely to have a high pick over that period, any deal for LaVine almost certainly involves trading away a first-round pick at a minimum and would likely involve adding an additional pick as compensation.

Coupled with an aging LeBron (almost 38 years old at the start of the 2022-23 season), a LaVine trade could leave the Lakers struggling to surround Anthony Davis (assuming he re-signs) with young talent, short of striking gold in free agency.

Is Zach LaVine worth risking trading for? Or do the negatives outweigh the positives? I personally think that it’s worth exploring a deal, provided that the compensation isn’t too steep in terms of draft picks included.

Provided that the Los Angeles Lakers continue to have all-world rim protection, I believe that the incredible offensive fit outweighs the horrible defense. Plus who knows, being a third-option on offense for the first time in years could allow LaVine to expend more energy on the defensive end.

Agree or disagree? Regardless, please leave your thoughts in the comments section below.