Could the Trail Blazers be a real threat to the Los Angeles Lakers?
“If the Portland Trail Blazers get in the playoffs, they will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round,” exclaimed Charles Barkley on July 16, 2020.
Damian Lillard said it first. He said the Blazers have a legit shot. Charles Barkley took it a step further and proclaimed the Blazers would beat the Lakers.
They both have a point. Forget the Blazers’ record, they were shorthanded all season long. Now they are at full strength.
Disregard concerns about chemistry with Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins returning to the Blazers lineup, chemistry is going to be a problem for every team with all squads having gone without playing in months.
After a long layoff, shooting always comes back to players first; defensive timing and rotations come last. Portland will quickly shake off the rust because Damian Lillard, Carmelo Anthony, and CJ McCollum are great individual scorers, combining for 66.7 points per game this year.
The trio will be one step ahead of the Lakers defense for a game or two. This does not give the Lakers a comfortable margin for error, especially with Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo out.
Danny Green and Alex Caruso both rank in the top 10 in defensive real plus/minus among shooting guards. Both would theoretically be excellent options to guard Lillard or McCollum with their length and athleticism, but Dame and CJ’s offense is just better than their defense.
I see both Green and Caruso as better wing defenders. Losing Bradley really hurts their ability to guard Portland consistently. Bradley is their best on-ball defender on point guards. Green is much better when guarding wings.
How do the Lakers defend the pick-and-roll?
Kudos to the Blazers for keeping it simple. They mainly run high pick-and-roll for Lillard and McCollum. How do the Lakers defend this? They have to pick between three poisons. At least Vizzini (of Princess Bride fame) only had to pick between two poisoned wine glasses – and got to hang out with Andre the Giant!
Poison #1: Drop Back, Damian Lillard May Go For 50
Make no mistake about it. Damian Lillard will have the ball in his hands a lot. He may average 50 points in this series if the Lakers drop back and not guard him from over the top. Guarding over the top will give him open mid-range shots and contested layups, which is bad, but far better than giving up open pull-up 3’s. CJ McCollum is also noted for knocking down the off-the-dribble midrange shot. I would force CJ to finish at the basket.
Poison #2: Switch, Damian Lillard Still May Go for 50 and Nurkic Dominates Inside
This is a terrible idea. This strategy forces JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to guard Lillard 1-on-1… and McGee and Howard should be quarantined for two weeks if they ever leave the paint on defense, much less guard Lillard 1-on-1.
Moving Anthony Davis to center and switching him on to Lillard may work in theory, but it takes away the Lakers’ top strength inside, blocking shots (good for No. 1 in the NBA). The returning Jusuf Nurkic also has 35 pounds on Davis and will punish any Lakers guard on the block. Lillard still may go for 50 if the Lakers switch everything. I would not switch at all.
Poison #3: Blitz/Trap/Hedge, Give Anyone Else Besides Lillard Open Shots
The Portland big men feast if Damian Lillard immediately gets double-teamed off the pick-and-roll. Hassan Whiteside gets lots of dunks, Nurkic becomes a point center in a 4 on 3 situation, Zach Collins gets wide open 18 footers, even the small-ball power forward version of Carmelo Anthony can attack the basket in space.
Help and give up corner threes. McCollum and Anthony shoot over 50 percent from there, playing 3-on-4 against four good offensive players would be a tough task.
What Should the Lakers Do?
I choose to drink poison #3 (as Vizzini should have). Trapping Lillard deals with the Lakers’ biggest threat: Damian Lillard taking over games.
Lillard is proven to be a threat to beat the Lakers. Everyone else on the Blazers might be a threat. It is unlikely the other four Blazers players shoot the lights out for one game, much less four out of seven times. Lillard singlehandedly won a first-round series against OKC last season.
But the other players are pretty good. Carmelo Anthony is in a late-career renaissance. CJ McCollum is legit. Conceding corner 3’s to either one of them is not as huge of a deal as the numbers suggest. Anthony (18.6 percent) and McCollum (14.8 percent) only take a small percentage of their shots from the corner. The sample size is too small to suggest they keep shooting over 50 percent.
The Blazers are also dead last in assists. Trapping forces the Blazers to pass the ball. If the Lakers trap Lillard in Game One, they will start one step ahead in this series and force the Blazers to play out of their comfort zone.
The Blazers would quickly be in trouble.
How would Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins come to the Blazers rescue?
Zach Collins:
Do not sleep on Collins as an old-school stretch-four. He can knock down the pick-and-pop mid-range with ease.
The pick-and-pop mitigates a double-team as the first pass becomes an immediate threat to score. There has to be an extra rotation on a trap. Even if Collins only plays the four, this will force Anthony Davis to take one extra step to rotate on contesting drives. That matters when everyone will be more out of sync than usual with defensive timing and rotations.
Jusuf Nurkic:
The Blazers would adjust to the Lakers trapping defense by running the offense through Nurkic from the top of the key.
The Lakers would obviously not double-team in this instance. Handoffs to Lillard and McCollum have the same benefits as a pick-and-roll, except it also frees them up to attack the basket on the move, as opposed to having to blow by their man each time.
The Blazers average 10 isolations per game, second in the NBA behind James Harden at 14.5. It is exhausting to play isolation basketball all the time, hence why James Harden does not play aggressive defense. Getting their individual scorers on the move will save some energy for defense.
Which they need. Look below if you dare.
Blazers Defensive Stats:
- 5th worst in points allowed
- 4th worst in defensive rebounding percentage and points allowed per possession
- dead last in giving up 2nd chance points
- 5th worst in fast-break points allowed
- Carmelo Anthony rated the 2nd best defender on the team
Hassan Whiteside has plugged many, many holes with his rim protection and rebounding. The Blazers are middle in the pack in points allowed in the paint and second in blocks per game only because of him, but it is quite remarkable to think Nurkic’s offense will be more important than Whiteside’s defense in this series. The Blazers have a slim chance to win if they cannot integrate Nurkic successfully into the lineup.
Rumor has it they might play together. It might make sense on offense, but can this lineup stop the Lakers? No! But their regular lineup averaged giving up 128 points against the Lakers in the regular season. The conventional route got them nowhere! Try something new!
Portland has something to prove. This might be their last chance. Carmelo Anthony is nearing the end and Damian Lillard’s sheer brilliance can only last so long. Hassan Whiteside is a free agent. They cannot afford re-signing both him and keeping Nurkic.
Speaking of which, Nurkic is coming back from a broken leg. Big men with broken legs usually do not last very long.
The sense of urgency may win the Blazers the first game. The Blazers whole team might get hot and win a shootout. The Lakers will likely have an off night. I say all three happen. I say this series would go the distance.
Nevertheless, the Lakers will ultimately prevail. Charles Barkley’s prediction does not come to pass. I say this is just like their matchup in 2000: the Lakers come back from a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter to win Game 7 in dramatic fashion.
Prediction: Lakers win 4-3 (coming back from a 3-1 deficit)