Los Angeles Lakers watch party: Previewing Game 6 of Heat-Celtics

The Los Angeles Lakers will play either the Miami Heat or the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals.

The Los Angeles Lakers have officially made it to the NBA Finals! As Lake Show Life celebrates, we throw an epic watch party at Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The stakes are high: if the Miami Heat defeat the Boston Celtics tonight, they will face the Los Angeles Lakers in the finals. If not, Game 7 awaits.

Some pundits were foolish to automatically assume the Miami Heat would dispatch the Boston Celtics in Game 5. It was based on a questionable premise that Miami was better. The narrative was false from the beginning: Miami was never as dominant as portrayed; Boston was never as dormant.

It was only a matter of time before Boston would wake up and Miami would cool off from three-point range. As if Boston was really asleep. True, they inexplicably blew double-digit leads in both games 1 and 2. No excuses there. But give credit to where it’s due: Miami was unbelievable in the second half in both of those games. They wanted it more than Boston.

Gordon Hayward’s return propelled Boston to a Game 3 victory. Hayward’s stats were not too impressive – he had a triple single (6 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists) in 30 minutes of play coming off the bench.

Nevertheless, Hayward helped Boston unleash a bizarro iteration of the “Death Lineup” made famous by the Golden State Warriors. With Hayward replacing starting center Daniel Theis, Boston was able to go to a 5-out offense. The other four starters benefited tremendously. Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown all scored over 20 points.

Which forced Miami back to the drawing board. In Game 4, Miami needed a hero. The aptly-named Tyler Herro had his Austin 3:16 moment, scoring 37 points to lead Miami to a 3-1 series lead (33 points at the time of this tweet).

The headlines quickly emerged. Herro quickly became the toast of the town. Boston was toast. In much of Game 5, the narrative stayed true: Miami was up double digits for most of the first half.

Boston was done. Then Boston flipped the script. Boston scored 41 points in the third quarter in their Game 5 comeback. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for 59 points.

No one was saying Boston was toast anymore. Tyler Herro only scored 14 points.

So fair warning: Game 6’s outcome is extremely unpredictable.

My educated guess on who wins tonight are based mainly on stats. Some stats drive a self-serving narrative. These stats, on the other hand, have proven to be a bellwether of sorts as to who wins tonight.

Who makes their layups in the fourth quarter?
Forget the stats! We all know teams are supposed to make their layups. Just bear with me for a moment. Both Boston and Miami score around 40% of their points inside the paint. Given each game was not decided until at least midway through the fourth quarter, this stat will matter: Miami shoots 70% from the paint; Boston only a shade over 60% in the fourth quarter.

Will the 10-point differential be relevant when the game is decided by the final possession? I think so. Miami is a better finishing team.

Will Miami finally heat up from three-point range?
Miami was scorching the nets in the first two rounds, having averaged 38% from three-point range in the first two rounds. Their average has dipped to 30% in the Boston series. The team shooting woes extend to individual slumps: no one has shot above 36% in this series.

If they heat up as they did in the first two rounds, it is a (bubble) wrap for Boston. If not, fully expect a Game 7.

Will Jaylen Brown cool off? 

Florida’s heat and humidity are sweltering this time of year. Jaylen Brown did not get the message about turning on the air conditioning in the hotel rooms. He has stayed hot, shooting over 50% from three in this series.

If Brown cools off, the rest of Boston’s team will go to Disneyworld’s famous “Drink Around the World” attraction at Epcot to cool off. Because their season will now be over.

How much will Boston use their best lineup tonight?
Starting center Daniel Theis has played a big role in this series as a counter to Miami’s (again, aptly-named) center Bam Adebayo.

But he is no longer closing out games at center. Theis is out. Gordon Hayward is in. In only 14 minutes of action together, the Boston Celtics have found their best lineup: a wannabe iteration of the Golden State Warriors’ vaunted death lineup with five perimeter players closing out games.

While it is far less deadly than Golden State’s lineup, Boston’s iteration works. Their offensive rating has spiked to 135.3 (which would blow away the league’s best offense by a Disneyworld mile). The ball is popping, with 77% of their field goals being assisted. Their pace and shooting percentage has skyrocketed with this lineup out there.

(And yes, that’s a pun on Houston’s unsuccessful Micro Ball experiment.)

Great ball movement and outside shooting will pick apart both Miami’s inverted 2/3 zone and their base switching man-to-man defense. If the ball stops, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker will flourish attacking the basket with five-out spacing.

How often will Boston go to that lineup? I think Hayward’s presence (or lack thereof) in the middle decides Game 6.

Conclusion: who wins?
My predicting skills are notoriously on par with Charles Barkley. Finally, Barkley got one right, predicting the Los Angeles Lakers would win last night.

I overcome my fears of being wrong and say my prediction boldly. Boston wins tonight.

On to Game 7! The Los Angeles Lakers have more time to rest.