3. LeBron James needs to be aggressive in driving to the basket
If Game 5 against the Denver Nuggets taught us anything, it’s that even at age 35, LeBron James is still the best basketball player on the planet. Although a 38 point/16 rebound/10 assist triple-double is incredibly impressive in any context, what was most impressive to me was how aggressive LeBron was at driving to the basket throughout the game.
In his virtuoso performance, 15 of LeBron’s 25 field goal attempts were in the paint, a clip of 60%. This was especially encouraging because, throughout the rest of the series, he settled far too much for jump shots, shooting only 46.7% of his shots in the paint combined in the 4 other games.
The difference in effectiveness between LeBron’s ability to finish at the rim and his ability to consistently make jump shots has always been pronounced, but against Denver, the gulf between the two was even larger than normal.
For the series, he made only 40.9% of his mid-range shots and 25.0% of his above-the-break threes on a combined 42 attempts. Conversely, he shot 73.7% on 38 attempts inside the restricted area.
Throughout the 2019-20 playoffs, of any player that’s attempted at least 4 shots per game from inside the restricted area, LeBron only trails teammate Anthony Davis in restricted area FG%, with a blistering 75.7%.
Although a higher-than-desired percentage of LeBron’s jump shots occur during the fourth quarter of games, where his teammates have a bad tendency to stand still and watch him, the fact that he’s so quick to settle for these shots, when he’s still so good at finishing at the rim, is puzzling.
It’s no big secret as to the type of shots Miami will encourage LeBron to shoot. If they can bait him into taking too many of those inefficient contested midrange shots or above-the-break three-pointers, they have a great chance of causing the upset.
It’s not an infallible strategy for Miami; LeBron can and has caught fire from distance plenty of times throughout his career. They shouldn’t defend him as if he were Ben Simmons or Russell Westbrook, because unlike those two players, he’s a good enough shooter from distance to make teams pay.
However, assuming Miami doesn’t give him ridiculously open looks, LeBron should play the percentages and play to his strengths. That means settling for jump shots less and attacking the rim more often because even in his 17th season, he can get to the rim at will and is still the best restricted-area finisher in the league amongst wing players.
If LeBron makes up his mind that he’s going to attack the rim at every possible opportunity, there is nobody on the Heat that can stop him. Even Jimmy Butler, whose defensive prowess I respect immensely, allowed LeBron to shoot 60% from the field when guarded by him across two games this season.
LeBron’s playmaking has remained elite throughout the postseason and as he often does when the games matter most, he’s stepped his defense up many notches. However, his impact as a scoring threat is far more prominent when he’s aggressively attacking the basket, rather than settling for contested jump shots.
If LeBron finds a balance between his attack-mode while continuing to set the table for teammates, as he did in Game 5 against Denver, Miami is going to struggle to beat the Los Angeles Lakers four times in seven games.