Now that the longest season in NBA history has ended, and the Lakers captured their record-tying 17th championship, what’s in store for the club next year?
The Los Angeles Lakers proved without a doubt that they were the best team in the league this past season.
They were led by the dynamic duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, had outstanding team chemistry highlighting an “all for one” attitude, got excellent contributions all year long from their supporting role players, and enjoyed the terrific leadership of Coach Frank Vogel, who in particular pushed all the right buttons in the postseason.
What do they do for an encore? Can they realistically earn a repeat title next season? Do they have to make changes, and if so, what changes?
If Lakers fans had their way, the team would trade its 15th man and a second-round draft pick in exchange for an all-star. But since that’s not going to happen, what can we feasibly expect?
Let’s look at a couple of factors:
1. The Competition
To begin with, opposition in the Western Conference will get even more fierce next year. The Clippers return Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Lou Williams, and will hire a new coach, presumably one who is better able to help the team advance beyond the second round.
Then there is Golden State. Remember them? They made the Finals the last five years before this one and won three titles. Kevin Durant is gone, but Klay Thompson will return from injury to re-join Steph Curry and Draymond Green along with some promising young players.
Speaking of young players, Denver showed how talented a bunch they have and should be better than ever. Teams like Houston, Portland, Utah, Dallas, New Orleans and Phoenix should all be highly competitive.
And over in the Eastern Conference, Miami showed how tough they can be, and Milwaukee and Boston have their sights set on a title.
Regardless of what the Lakers do or don’t do this offseason, the road back to winning a second straight championship will be an obstacle course rather than an easy street painted purple and gold.
2. The Salary Cap
NBA revenues were down this year due to several factors, including the Covid-19 pandemic, which eliminated arena income, and the blackout imposed by China, which also caused the league to take a substantial financial hit.
As a result, the salary cap imposed on all teams will be reduced accordingly. That means that fewer teams will be able to sign top tier free agents, which will have a trickle-down impact on all free agents. The bottom line is that we are likely to see decreased player movement to new teams, although it’s possible the trade market will heat up.
What effect will this have on the Lakers? First, let’s look at their current roster, which consists of three categories:
Signed for Next Season: Alex Caruso, Quinn Cook (non-guaranteed), Danny Green, James, Kyle Kuzma and Talen Horton-Tucker
Player Options for Next Season: Avery Bradley, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Davis, JaVale McGee and Rajon Rondo
Davis will return. It’s only a matter of whether he exercises his $28.7 million option or signs a long-term contract. As pointed out recently by another Lake Show Life writer, AD may benefit by waiting a year for the extension. Such action could also be advantageous to the Lakers. We’ll have to see what Davis and his agent decide.
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KCP, who had an excellent playoff run on both sides of the ball, will likely exercise his $8.5 million contract. Bradley is probably worth more than his $5 million option, but his choices may be quite limited in a tight market, so the chances are at least even that he’ll return.
The veteran McGee saw his role get drastically reduced in the playoffs, yet at least on the surface, he seemed quite happy. He may decide to accept his $4.2 option. And Rondo, who found energy in the postseason that most of us didn’t know he still had, may not want to leave a good thing in LA and stay here for his $2.7 million option.
So it is a decent possibility that all five players exercise their options and remain with the Lakers.
Free Agents Next Season: Jared Dudley, Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris, JR Smith and Dion Waiters
The most important FA’s are two of GM Rob Pelinka’s best signings, Howard and Morris. It is never easy to know what Dwight is thinking. Perhaps he’ll be willing to return for a low salary (after all, he’s made over $240 million throughout his career) for another shot at a ring on a team where he’s happy. Or perhaps not.
It is equally uncertain what Morris, who at age 31 has earned about $44 million, is thinking. He played a bigger role with the team as the postseason progressed, but just what will motivate him is unknown. He might want to make more than the Lakers can pay him, but he also might want to stay in a pleasant environment.
Another free agent not shown above because the Lakers released him is DeMarcus Cousins. He wants to play with LeBron and AD, and if he has physically recovered enough from a torn Achilles to contribute, there’s a good chance Boogie will sign with LA for a minimum contract.
Will the Lakers make any off-season trades? That’s always possible but may be limited by two factors:
1. Impact of the Salary Cap
Since LA is over the salary cap, any potential trades must be made for relatively equal value. The two Lakers that most fans seem willing to part with are Green (who will earn $15.4 million next year) and Kuzma ($3.6 million).
Both players were thought to have under-performed this year. Green is a three-point shooting specialist who shot just 37% from deep in the regular season (career 40%) and 34% in the playoffs (39% lifetime), including the big miss at the end of game 5.
Kuzma, meanwhile, did not become the consistent third scoring threat that many expected. He averaged 13 points in the regular season and just 10 PPG in the postseason.
But Green was still a solid defensive contributor on the perimeter, is regarded as a great teammate and represents a shooting threat from behind the arc that opposing defenses must honor. Kuzma significantly improved on the defensive side, accepted a lesser role without complaint and remains a scoring threat.
The team might also be somewhat over-staffed in the backcourt. Allocating minutes to Bradley, KCP, Caruso, Rondo and Horton-Tucker, who will almost certainly get more playing time, may be problematic. So it’s at least possible that one of them will be dealt. The most likely one is Bradley. Although he had an excellent regular season, the team continued to win without him in the playoffs.
Might Green and Kuzma be packaged together in a deal that possibly also includes McGee and/or Bradley? It’s conceivable, even though Green’s production doesn’t justify his salary. But some team might bet that Kuzma could emerge as a big-time scorer if he’s given more opportunity.
The importance of team chemistry should not be over-rated, and Pelinka will consider that aspect before making any trades.
2. The 2021-22 Season
It is not coincidental that NO Laker is signed for the 2021-22 season. Yes, you read that correctly. Not a single Laker is under contract beyond next season.
That’s not to say that the cupboard is bare. James has a player option for that year. As long as he’s physically able, he will remain a Laker. He might exercise that option or he might sign a multi-year deal instead.
And as mentioned earlier, barring something completely unforeseen, AD will be with the team that year as well. If he doesn’t sign a max contract this off-season, he almost certainly will next year.
But it is Pelinka’s master plan to maintain a wide-open roster. He has purposely created cap space in 2021-22, hoping to sign a third star to join LBJ and AD. The biggest fish of course might be Giannis Antetokounmpo but other star free agents will also probably be available.
Now if the Lakers can get the right player via trade this off-season, Pelinka won’t hesitate to make the deal. But he wants to remain flexible for 2021-22, so isn’t likely to spend too much at the fringes this year.
Bottom Line
It’s possible that the Lakers will need to replace one, two, or even more players that decide to sign elsewhere. They also may choose to try to upgrade the roster via a trade or two. But big changes are unlikely, and the Lakers roster next season will likely strongly resemble this year’s.
And since this year’s team was the best in the NBA, that’s good news for Lakers fans!
All statistics courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com