The modern NBA is all about three-point shooting, but is it overrated? Do the Los Angeles Lakers really need sharpshooters?
Conventional wisdom dictates that the Los Angeles Lakers should surround their two superstars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, with accurate three-point shooters. The argument is that when opponents invariably collapse and double-team the duo, the Lakers should have great shooters available to make those defenses pay the price.
On the surface, such clamoring by fans to add a sharpshooter or two seems to make very good sense. But just what advantage does a top-shooting marksman bring over an average shooter? And should adding one be a team priority?
The beginning of the three-point shot
Although it wasn’t celebrated, this past season marked the 40th birthday of the NBA three-point shot. The shot was used in the old American Basketball Association, but the NBA first adopted it in the 1979-80 season, which coincidentally was Magic Johnson’s rookie year.
Believe it or not, the Lakers attempted only 100 three-pointers that entire 1979-80 season. The team converted just 20 of its tries, a rather dismal 20% shooting percentage. Their leading long-distance shooter, Michael Cooper, shot 5-20, or an underwhelming 25%.
Only one team, the Hawks, attempted fewer shots beyond the arc than the Lakers that year. The average team in the league that year attempted 227 three-point shots and made 64 (28%). The most three-point shots were taken by the San Diego Clippers who launched 543 tries from deep and made 177 (32.6%). Still, as most fans know, the Lakers captured the NBA title that season.
Three-point shooting today
Over the intervening years, the three-pointer has become an integral part of a team’s offense. Most of us couldn’t imagine a game without it. In the 2019-20 season, the average team attempted about 34 shots beyond the arc per game (2,408 shots total) and converted 12 per game (562), a success rate of 35.8%.
The Los Angeles Lakers ranked 21st in attempts and shot slightly below average, 34.9%. Their most accurate long-distance shooter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, ranked 53rd in the league, connecting on 38.5% of his attempts.
Three NBA players (George Hill, JJ Redick and Seth Curry) this past season shot 45% or better from behind the arc. The best three-point shooting team was Utah at 38%, and the worst was Atlanta, just 33.3%. Houston naturally took the most three-pointers, 3.261, and made 1,126, 34.5%.
How a sharpshooter compares to an average shooter:
Let’s create a real-life example by comparing Seth Curry, an excellent 45.2% three-point shooter this past season, with Lou Williams, who hit 35.2%, or close to the league average. Both players averaged about 5 three-point tries per game. For simplicity’s sake, let’s round their rates of success slightly to 45% and 35%.
Those percentages obviously mean that Curry hit 45 shots per 100 attempts while Williams made 35. That’s a difference of 10 baskets per 100 tries. Another way to express that is to say Curry made one more three-pointer every 10 shots attempted than Williams did.
Since both players tried about five shots per game from behind the arc, on average it took each of them two games to attempt 10 shots. Curry, therefore, averaged one additional made three-point basket every other game than Williams did.
Think about that for a moment. One extra three-pointer every two games separates an expert shooter from an average one. Yes, that is a difference. But it’s certainly not a monumental one.
Relevance for the Los Angeles Lakers
How many games do you think the Los Angeles Lakers lost in the 2019-20 season by three or fewer points? In the regular season, the answer was just three games. In the playoffs, they lost one more game by three points. Yes, that was Game 5 of the Finals when Danny Green (a 36.7% shooter) missed a potential game-winning three-pointer in the final seconds.
So, mathematically speaking, a sharpshooter like Curry might have converted a big three-pointer in two of those four close games that an average shooter missed. And as a result, the Lakers might have won two more games.
Other Aspects
Other factors should be considered. One is that a great shooter is perhaps even more likely than percentages show to connect on wide-open threes than an average shooter.
When opposing defenses collapse to double team superstars like LeBron and AD, their teammates should get more open looks than they probably would on most other teams. So there could be a slightly greater advantage for a sharpshooter like Curry.
But on the other side of the coin, a missed three is more likely to ricochet longer than other shots past the big men near the basket. This can result in more offensive rebounds. So at least on some of the additional misses that an average shooter like Williams has, his team will retain possession for another field goal attempt.
Conclusion
The point here is not that a long-distance marksman doesn’t have worth. The NBA game is trending towards taking more three-pointers, not less. And Laker GM Rob Pelinka will undoubtedly take that into account as he fills the roster for next season.
But he also knows that the team needs more than great shooters. One key reason the Lakers won the title was their outstanding defense. During the season, Coach Frank Vogel limited the minutes that career 40% three-point shooters Quinn Cook and Troy Daniels played, at least in part because of their less-than-stellar defense.
There’s nothing wrong with fans placing value on accurate sharpshooters. After all, it’s more fun to watch long-distance hoops than shut-down D. But it should also be realized that Pelinka and Vogel understand that titles are won by well-rounded players and that defense can be at least as important as good shooters.
All statistics courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com.