James Harden could be on the move and it could hurt the Los Angeles Lakers’ title chances.
The Los Angeles Lakers defeated James Harden and the Houston Rockets on their way to winning the 17th NBA Championship in franchise history. The Rockets do not pose much of a threat this season, either, as the Lakers are a much better well-rounded team.
However, Harden on another roster could make it harder for the Los Angeles Lakers, who are currently the title-favorites, to repeat as champions. Harden is an MVP-worthy superstar that shifts the entire landscape of a franchise. Putting him on another contending team would absolutely shift the NBA Title picture, perhaps hurting the Los Angeles Lakers.
Harden has now expanded his list of preferred trade destinations to include three extra teams — the Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, along with the original preferred destination of the Brooklyn Nets.
So, should the Lakers be worried? Is there going to be a potentially tough NBA Finals matchup in-store with James Harden? Will the team have to figure out how to stop Harden with Philly, Harden with Giannis, or Harden with Jimmy Butler in the NBA Finals?
The answer — quite frankly — is no.
Why the Los Angeles Lakers should not be worried
Now, I do want to make it clear that if James Harden is traded to any of the teams that he prefers to be traded to then it is going to be harder for the Los Angeles Lakers to repeat as champion. Granted, they have to get their first, but I do not think it is unreasonable to say that all of those teams would leapfrog the Lakers in title odds if a Harden trade was pulled off.
The problem is, for Harden, that a trade with any of those teams simply is not likely. I would not completely rule out a Harden trade in general, but it is hard to see a scenario in which Harden does land on these title-contending teams and is facing the Lakers in the NBA Finals.
Let’s break it down, team by team.
Talks between the Houston Rockets and Brooklyn Nets have already fizzled and it is clear that Houston is not interested in the classic “four quarters for a dollar” trade strategy of getting four high-end role players for one top-five superstar.
The same problem exists in Miami and Philadelphia. Miami does not have any young superstar to trade unless they part ways with Bam Adebayo, which isn’t happening. The pieces that the Heat would be able to send are laughable.
Using TradeNBA’s NBA Trade Machine, we worked out a deal that gets Harden to Miami. It includes sending Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynk, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson (plus picks). to Houston. That is just not happening. Herro and Robinson are solid but they are not worth James Harden.
Philadelphia has a slightly better package where they can package Tobias Harris with Seth Curry and three future first-round picks for Harden. That still is not even close to good enough. Harris is the perfect example of an overpaid high-end rotation player that teams absolutely do not want to trade for.
Now, if you expand the conversation to be a James Harden for Ben Simmons swap then it gets interesting. The problem with that is that Daryl Morey does not want to part ways with either of his young stars.
Milwaukee is probably the most intriguing trade destination but their package still is not enough. To get this deal done, the Bucks would have to send a package centered around Khris Middleton and Donte DiVincenzo for the Rockets to even consider it.
The problem is, though, that the Bucks cannot trade and future firsts for Harden because of the Stepien Rule, which does not allow teams to trade consecutive years of draft picks. You can get around this in an offseason like the Lakers did to get Dennis Schroder, but you can’t really get around it when you are trading picks three years in advance.
Since the Bucks traded five first-round picks for Jrue Holiday it simply is not possible.
Could there be a sleeper team that comes in and steals James Harden? Yes. But at that point, the Los Angeles Lakers probably would not be worried anyway because he would not be going to any marquee contenders next season.
There could be some sort of three-team trade in the works, which would be really interesting to see, but at the end of the day, the Los Angeles Lakers do not have to be worried about facing James Harden in the NBA Finals.