Lakers: How will the most interesting preseason players perform in 2021?
Montrezl Harrell
Montrezl Harrell will go from averaging 18 points per game last season to a meager 10 PPG in 2021.
The sharp decline in Harrell’s point production is not an indictment of his game; it’s an understanding that he’s no longer on the Clippers. He’s a member of the deepest and best organization in the world.
If we break down the Lakers probable scoring chart, it will look something like this:
- Anthony Davis: 28 PPG
- LeBron James: 24 PPG
- Dennis Schröderr: 12 PPG
- Kyle Kuzma: 12 PPG
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: 8 PPG
- Wesley Matthews: 5 PPG
- Marc Gasol: 5 PPG
- Alex Caruso: 5 PPG
- Markieff Morris: 5 PPG
- Talen Horton-Tucker: 3 PPG
That’s a total of 107 points per game without including Montrezl Harrell’s potential 10 points. The top-scoring team in the NBA last season was the Milwaukee Bucks at 118 PPG.
If Montrezl Harrell averages only 10 points per game in 2021, the Lakers will produce 117 points per game, making them one of the association’s best offensive teams. Rob Pelinka added several gifted scorers to the squad, so it’s not hard to envision the Purple and Gold finishing in the top five in offensive production.
My player point distribution already looks modest. I have Dennis Schröder averaging close to seven points less than he did last year and five rotation players averaging under 10 points per game. Despite my best efforts to give every player outside LeBron and AD humble point averages, the Lakers still clock in as an offensive juggernaut.
It’s easy to see how difficult it’s going to be for Harrell to find opportunities to score, even with the knowledge that LeBron and AD will miss close to ten games next season as part of their load management plan.
Last year the Lakers finished the year ranked 24th in pick and roll frequency (14.7%), while Harrell’s Clippers ended things in fourth (22.6%). The Clippers’ high pick and roll numbers were almost entirely due to the bench combination of Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell.
Perhaps LeBron James and Montrezl Harrell, or Dennis Schröder and Harrell will find a new type of chemistry, and the Lakers as a team will run more pick and rolls, but it’s unlikely. LBJ had Anthony Davis, one of the most devastating roll men in the league, by his side last season, and they didn’t run pick and rolls often.
LeBron prefers to work in isolation at the top of the key, and Anthony Davis creates most of his baskets out of the post or midrange.
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Montrezl Harrell’s energy, defense, and rebounding will be a massive boon for the Lakers. Harrell will be a solid contributor in 2021, but the Lakers’ star power at the top, depth throughout the lineup, and aversion to running pick and rolls will take a toll on his point totals in 2021.