2. The Dallas Mavericks have too much ground to make up to catch the Los Angeles Lakers
To fall to the seventh seed the Los Angeles Lakers would have to be caught by both the Portland Trail Blazers and/or Dallas Mavericks. The Mavericks currently have a half-game lead over the eighth-seeded Grizzlies, so we will just use them for this thought experiment.
Portland could absolutely jump the Lakers in the standings with a hot finish. The Blazers are 2.5 games back of the Lakers and can jump them if the Lakers play to their floor or just slightly above their floor.
The Mavericks are simply too far back. Dallas is currently 4.5 games back of the Lakers in the standings and they have 16 more games to play.
If we take our predicted floor of the Los Angeles Lakers with the star players returning (7-8) then Dallas would have to go 12-4 just to finish with the same record. The Lakers have won the only regular-season matchup between the two teams this season, so Dallas would have to go 2-0 against the Lakers to have the tiebreaker.
Is Dallas going to finish eight games above .500 in its final 16 games when it is only four games above .500 this far into the season? Anything is possible with Luka Doncic, but that is doubtful.
Again, that is the floor for Dallas. If the Lakers manage to finish the season 9-6 then Dallas would have to go 14-2 just to tie LA.
That is a big hole to climb out of with only 15 and 16 games remaining for both teams. The Los Angeles Lakers are safe.