The NBA season is winding down, meaning that it is time to primarily talk about two things: the NBA Playoffs and award season. The Los Angeles Lakers should be an integral part of both discussions.
LeBron James was the frontrunner to win the MVP award prior to his high ankle sprain on March 20. It would have been the fifth MVP award of LeBron’s career (let’s be honest, he could have won 10) but instead, it will likely go to Nikola Jokic or Stephen Curry (if he continues his red-hot tear).
LeBron has simply missed too many games.
The Lakers still have a player in the running for an award though. Reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year Montrezl Harrell is once again a contender for the award and is someone who is getting severely overlooked.
The focus for the award is on the two role players in Utah: Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles. There is this understanding that Clarkson and Ingles are the two favorites for the award and are competing as teammates to take home the honor.
Wrong. The award should go to Montrezl Harrell for his impact on the Los Angeles Lakers.
It might be easy to overlook Harrell and it is easy to look at how good Utah has been as proof that one of the two role players deserve it. Besides the fact that there can technically only be one sixth man on a team, there are compelling statistical reasons why Montrezl Harrell deserves the award over Clarkson, Ingles and the rest of the NBA.
No homer bias here. Let’s break down the offensive and defensive side of the basketball and make Harrell’s case.
1. Montrezl Harrell and Joe Ingles are much more efficient offensively than Jordan Clarkson
When you look at the overall offensive numbers it is really easy to consider Jordan Clarkson as the best of the three players in the running. However, in reality, Clarkson should probably be the third player mentioned when it comes to offense because of pure efficiency.
Sure, Clarkson averages more points per game than both Harrell and Ingles but he is doing in more shots. Clarkson is simply asked to do more and while he has been really good this season, he does not come close to Harrell and Ingles in terms of efficiency.
Ingles has been extremely efficient as he has been one of the best three-point shooters in the entire league this season. His 68.2 eFG% is not only higher than Harrell’s 62.1 eFG%, but actually leads the entire NBA.
Harrell is averaging slightly more points per game, more rebounds and fewer assists. All of this balances out and Ingles and Harrell are really similar offensively. Ingles has the better offensive rating (132 to 127) but that is also indicative of the team’s performance.
Harrell has accumulated 4.2 offensive win shares this season, Ingles has accumulated 4.3. Ingles does have a bigger advantage in Offensive Box Plus/Minus with a 3.2 compared to Harrell’s 2.4.
Ingles does have a slight advantage overall offensively but the fact remains that he and Harrell blow Clarkson out of the water. Then we get to defense, where Harrell ironically gets a bigger edge over Clarkson and surpasses Ingles.
Defense helps put Montrezl Harrell over the top
It is really close. Joe Ingles is a much tougher matchup for Harrell but he is not even the one that most people are talking about. Most people are talking about Clarkson because of the overall points per game number and that is not the important thing.
First of all, Clarkson is also the worst defender of the bunch. He is a below-average defender and while defense often gets overlooked, it creates a big gap between him and the other two. Clarkson very well should be third on this list, but instead, many outlets have him as number one.
Harrell and Ingles are once again very close. Harrell got knocked a lot for his defense in the offseason but as expected, he has really picked it up as part of a better defensive team in the Los Angeles Lakers.
Harrell has more defensive win shares but Ingles has a better DBPM. Harrell, again influenced by overall team play, has a better defensive rating.
Ingles has a better overall BPM than Harrell does but Harrell has a far better WS/48 minutes than Ingles does. Harrell is currently sitting at .224, Ingles is sitting at .193. Just for comparison’s sake, the last NBA Sixth Man of the Year to have a WS/48 as high as Harrell this season was James Harden back in 2013. I heard that guy is pretty good now.
In the history of the award, there have only been three winners to have a WS/48 that high. Harden, Manu Ginobili and Toni Kukoc. That is it.
The defense is what helps put Harrell over the edge. Similar offensive efficiency (but more output) and better defensive numbers give Harrell the edge over Ingles and a big edge over Jordan Clarkson.
If you combined Clarkson and Ingles together as one sixth man then they would win the award. Too bad that is not possible and the true sixth man for his team will win the award.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.