The Los Angeles Lakers defeated the Phoenix Suns with the largest margin of victory in the series thus far on Friday, 109-95. While the Suns crept back into the game late in the fourth, a strong third quarter propelled the Lakers to victory and a 2-1 series lead.
While nothing is over until it is truly over, it is safe to say that the Lakers, as the seventh-seed, have already put a wrap on this series vs. Phoenix. It is over. The Los Angeles Lakers are winning this series and the question is simply in how many games.
My best guess is five.
Nothing is more indicative of this than the fact that the Lakers have -1000 odds to win the series on WynnBet despite only having a one-game advantage over Phoenix.
That is what we call in the industry a lock for Los Angeles Lakers.
We told fans not to panic after losing Game 1 against Phoenix and the team has made us look good in the process. Two straight wins will likely turn into four and before you know it we will be previewing the winner of the Denver Nuggets-Portland Trail Blazers series.
My money there is on the Nuggets.
Let’s get into why I am so confident that the Los Angeles Lakers have already won this series despite only playing three games.
1. Chris Paul’s injury
To be completely transparent, even if Chris Paul wasn’t hurt I would not love the Phoenix Suns’ chances in this series being down two games to one. But CP3 battling a shoulder injury only adds to the laundry list of why the Lakers will win this series.
Chris Paul is still gutting through the injury and playing in this series, which definitely deserves some applause and love from the NBA community, but he is obviously not himself. Paul does not appear to be able to shoot much, attempting only eight shots in the Game 3 loss.
Phoenix has been limiting his minutes and he only played 27 on Thursday. In Game 2, the Lakers pulled away when Paul was sitting on the bench, watching his young team get worked by LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Chris Paul is the reason why the Suns were the second-seed in the West to begin with. This is a team that was below .500 last season and it was Paul’s veteran leadership that helped put them over the edge.
Now, would they have been a playoff team even without Paul, especially with how they played in the seeding games last year? Yes, most likely. But would they have been the second seed in the West? Not a chance.
The Lakers are already an overqualified seventh seed while the Suns are getting a 50% version of the guy who elevated them to be a second seed. In reality, despite what the standings say, the Lakers are more like the second seed while Phoenix is more like the seventh seed.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers cracked the code on Devin Booker
The Los Angeles Lakers are the best defensive team in the league for a reason. While some like to dissect the team’s backcourt defense, the fact of the matter is that the Lakers have several elite defenders alongside several more great defenders.
More importantly, the Lakers have arguably the most defense-savvy head coach in the NBA. Frank Vogel, while not perfect as a head coach, is fantastic in establishing defensive game plans and adjusting over time.
That is why we saw the Lakers lose Game 1 twice in last year’s playoffs only to come back and gentleman’s sweep both teams. The Lakers make an adjustment, make the adjustment to the adjustment, and the adjustment to the adjustment to the adjustment.
You get the point.
They have adjusted on Devin Booker and after a strong first game, he has not been the same in Games 2 and 3. Part of that is because of CP3, but the Lakers have done a really strong job of stopping Booker and frustrating him in the process.
Booker scored just 19 points in Game 3 on 6-19 shooting (1-4 from three). Six of his 19 points came at the foul line. He turned the ball over four times and fouled out.
He scored 31 points in Game 2 of the series but that was strictly because he was able to get to the line. The Lakers addressed the foul problems in letting Booker get to the line too much and that showed in Game 3. He may have scored 31 points but 17 came from the charity stripe as he shot 41.2% from the field. He has shot a combined 1-7 from three in Games 2 and 3.
Don’t commit careless fouls and Booker is not going to beat the Lakers and they have made that adjustment.
3. The Los Angeles Lakers have not played close to their best game
The Los Angeles Lakers are up 2-1 in the series despite not even scratching the surface of what is possible. The team won by double-figures on Thursday despite only shooting 25% from beyond the arc. They dominated the paint and got to the line, which was expected in this matchup.
Game 2 was more of the same. The Lakers did not shoot as well as they could have from beyond the arc and it took a strong shooting performance from LeBron James to make that number serviceable. They still got the job done and took a victory on the road.
The Lakers are still learning to play together and thus far, they have probably reached 75% of their ceiling. Game 1 was atrocious and one the Lakers should have won if they could just hit shots and they have gotten better each game since.
There is just no way the Suns can beat a Lakers team that does what they did on Thursday night while also adding better three-point shooting. If Kentavious Caldwell-Pope gets going and get hit 2-3 threes a game plus more from Anthony Davis then we are getting in blowout territory.
Heck, two more threes and the Lakers would have won by over 20 and they still would have only shot 35.7%. What happens on the night where the Lakers get hot and shoot 40% from beyond the arc? It will happen.
What happens is the Suns get blown out of the water.