Los Angeles Lakers: The percentage chance that each player returns

The Los Angeles Lakers upcoming free agents:

Obviously, the team can’t sign each one. If you talk to 10 fans, you’ll get 10 different opinions on which players the team should keep. But here’s a projection of the likelihood that these players return to the Lakers next season:

Talen Horton-Tucker: 80%

At this year’s trade deadline, Pelinka reportedly refused to include THT in a prospective deal for Kyle Lowry, which clearly demonstrated how much he values the 20-year-old. His plan most certainly is to keep him in a Lakers uniform.

NBA rules, in particular, the so-called “Gilbert Arenas provision”, provide an advantage for teams to re-sign players they drafted. The Lakers can rely on this rule and their relationship with THT’s agent, Klutch Sports, to retain him.

The only small doubt is if THT wants to seek greener pastures and a bigger role elsewhere, but there is no indication that is the case. There is also a possibility that some team offers him deal with a “poison pill” providing for a huge salary at the back end of the contract. But the Lakers can match whatever another team offers, so in all likelihood THT will be back.

Alex Caruso: 75%

He may not be a high scorer, but AC does all the little things that his teammates and coaches love. He is one of their best perimeter defenders, has a very high basketball IQ and has the trust of James, which obviously is an important factor. Plus this season he shot 40% on three-point tries.

The Lakers have his Bird rights, allowing them to match any offer another team makes. The reason the percentage is not higher is because some other team could conceivably offer Caruso more money than the Lakers can afford. But the strong likelihood is that he returns.

Dennis Schroder: 50%

A return to the Lakers once seemed like a sure thing. But Schroder, who has never averaged 20 points a game in his career, reportedly wants to be paid as if he’s an all-star guard when in reality he is several notches below that.

He never found a comfortable role with LA, where his performance was glaringly inconsistent. He started every game he played even though he is probably best suited to being a sixth man rather than a lead guard.

Pelinka has three choices this summer. A reasonable argument can be made for selecting each one:

1.    Re-sign him, which can always be done because the team holds his Bird rights and can match any other team’s offer. The motivating reason is, as Pelinka well knows, that it will be difficult if not impossible to acquire a replacement of equal value due to the salary cap.

2.    Allow him to walk away and sign elsewhere. The money the club saves could then be used on other players, especially their own free agents.

3.    Construct a sign-and-trade deal with another team. This is a difficult process because it requires the consent of several parties, but it is possible.

The guess here is that the Lakers prefer option #3 if they can somehow put together a workable sign-and-trade. But Pelinka might be forced to choose between the first two options.

Andre Drummond: 40%

He earned $28.7 million from Cleveland this past season before his contract was bought out, making him possibly the most over-paid player in the NBA. His career earnings exceed $138 million.

Drummond is an outstanding rebounder and is more mobile than most 6’10” men. He is a reasonably good defender although he struggles against some of the league’s better centers like MVP Nikola Jokic.

But his offensive game has many weaknesses. Most significantly, he relies too much on strength rather than finesse. He drops too many passes and fumbles the ball away too often when he dribbles. His shooting range is about 5-8 feet and even then he shot only 53% as a Laker, which is well below average for a man of his size and strength. And his free throw percentage was a poor 60.5% (which is where his field goal % should be).

However, the Lakers need a center. So whether he returns probably boils down to where he places the greatest value: does Drummond wish to get the maximum available contract or is he willing to take a sizable pay cut to play alongside James and Davis?

The guess here is that, like most players, he will want a higher salary, probably more than the Lakers can afford, and he won’t be returning.

Markieff Morris: 75%

Morris was quoted as saying he wanted to stay a Laker for the rest of his career. He was a valuable front-court reserve the past 1 ½ seasons, although his three-point shooting deteriorated this past season to just 31%, his lowest in five years.

He is pretty good but not outstanding in most facets of the game. His value to the club would increase if Kuzma is traded, depending on who they receive in return. He would likely enter the game to replace AD and team with him upfront in the Lakers version of small ball.

He earned only $2.3 million last season. If he’s willing to accept a similar deal, he will most likely return.

Wes Matthews: 50%

Matthews was signed as a free agent to replace the traded Danny Green as a 3-and-D wing, but the results were disappointing.

Accustomed to being a starter, he did not perform well as a reserve off the bench. He shot just 33.5% from beyond the arc, well below his career 38% average. His defense was pretty good but he has slowed down a bit at age 34.

Wes has said he wants to return. But like several of his teammates, much will depend on his salary requirements. He earned $3.6 million this past season. If he will accept a similar deal, the Lakers will likely re-sign him unless they can find someone better for a similar price.

Ben McLemore: 50%

He played just 21 games with the Lakers after being signed as a midseason free agent because of his three-point shooting. He connected at a 37% clip, right about his career average.

McLemore, who is coming off a $2.3 million salary, will undoubtedly explore the free-agent market to see what his value is. If he finds a lucrative deal elsewhere, he’ll be gone. If not, he will probably return because the Lakers probably won’t find a better alternative at the same price.

Jared Dudley: 5%

In his second Lakers season, Dudley at age 35 contributed almost nothing on the court but was a valuable resource and voice of experience to his teammates on the bench, at practice and in the locker room, essentially acting as an unofficial coach.

He suffered a torn MCL late in the season which could mean his playing days are over. But he might well return to the team in some sort of official coaching role.

Devontae Cacok: 20%

Although he’s performed well in the G-League, Cacok hasn’t experienced much success at the NBA level. At 6-7, he is an excellent rebounder but hasn’t shown much in the way of offense.

He could be re-signed at a minimum salary for the 15th spot on the roster, but chances are he’ll end up elsewhere.

Kostas Antetokounmpo: 0%

Giannis’ younger brother signed a five-year contract to play in his homeland, Greece.

The Lakers are proud to point out that they started last season 21-7 before injuries struck down first Davis and then James. The feeling is that the team didn’t get a fair chance to defend its title.

A major overhaul is highly unlikely. Palinka would like to acquire another star but likely lacks the resources to do so. He’ll do some tinkering with the supporting cast and will probably surprise everyone with some moves. He may also be able to fill some needs through the draft.

But chances are next season’s team won’t be very different with 8-12 players returning.

All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.