Pinpointing exactly when LeBron James will break the NBA scoring record

The biggest storyline around the Los Angeles Lakers right now is not the team’s up-and-down season, the trade deadline, or even Anthony Davis’ injury. It is the fact that LeBron James is about to break a record that many people thought would never be broken.

After dropping 48 points on the Houston Rockets in Monday night’s win, LeBron James is 316 points away from passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the NBA scoring record. By the time the 2022-23 season ends, the 38,387 number will no longer be synonymous with the greatest scorer in league history.

Lakers fans are already trying to line up the calendar to see when exactly LeBron will break this record. If you buy tickets now, the prices will be far cheaper than if you buy them the night before when he is only 20 points away from breaking the record.

While a lot can happen and all of this is up in the air, I believe that I have pinpointed exactly when the scoring record will fall, perhaps to give Lake Show Life readers a head start on purchasing tickets.

Pinpointing when LeBron James will break the NBA scoring record:

While 316 points may seem like a lot, it really is not much with how LeBron James is playing. In the Lakers’ last 15 games (13 of which LeBron has played), James is averaging 34.6 points per game. If we do the simplest of math that would mean that James would break the record on February 4 against the New Orleans Pelicans.

However, there are some factors to consider here. First is the fact that this game is in New Orleans and if it were up to LeBron, he probably would want to break the record in Los Angeles in front of his family, his home fans and the drove of celebrities that will naturally come to the game.

Los Angeles is on the road from January 28 to February 4 (five games) so there is not a window before January 4 where LeBron can try to go nuclear and chase the scoring record. If he really cares about it being in LA (he likely does), then it will have to wait.

Luckily, the Lakers have back-to-back home games on February 7 and 9 against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks. The second of which is already scheduled to be a nationally televised game on TNT.

The second factor to consider is that LeBron is already resting in certain situations to keep his body fresh. He is going to continue to do so and it will allow him to knock out two birds with one stone by staying fresh and pushing off his record-breaking night to a night in LA.

With how often LeBron rests (and the situations in which he does rest) we can pinpoint two games where he will likely sit out. January 25 against the Spurs (second night of a back-to-back, third game in four days) and February 2 (third game in four days, seventh game in a 12-day window).

If he rests in two games then LeBron will just need to average between 31.6 points and 35.1 points per game to break the record on February 9 against the Milwaukee Bucks. It is already a primetime stage against a big-name opponent, Giannis Antetokounmo.

That feels like the most likely day that LeBron James breaks the scoring record. Buy your tickets now, Lakers fans.