About six weeks ago, when the Los Angeles Lakers were fighting just to qualify for the playoffs, it was brashly predicted here that they would advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Now, after dethroning the defending champion Golden State Warriors, that forecast has come true as the Lakers face the Denver Nuggets in a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals.
The series promises to be an intense battle between two excellent teams. Neither one should dominate the other. Several factors will determine the winner.
Here are the most important matchups that will dictate the Lakers-Nuggets series:
1. Anthony Davis vs Nikola Jokic
Basketball fans everywhere are excited about the upcoming battle between two of the top-10 players in the NBA. The Joker outweighs AD by about 30 pounds and will undoubtedly try to back him down into the paint. Davis, meanwhile, will use his quickness to move around and past Jokic on his way to the hoop.
Neither player can truly stop the other. Each team needs its star on the floor, so avoiding foul trouble will be key. In 2020 the Lakers used Dwight Howard to defend Jokic as much as possible, with mixed results. But this time around their other options could be more limited.
Although Davis has played nearly exclusively at center this season, Lakers Coach Darvin Ham may at times slide him over to power forward and match up either Mo Bamba, if he has sufficiently recovered from his sprained ankle, or Tristan Thompson against Jokic. Bamba is as tall as Joker but weighs 50 pounds less. Thompson lacks height and has only played a few minutes all season, but he has the experience and smarts to put up some resistance.
In all likelihood, both stars will shine. As is often the case, the series may hinge on other matchups.
2. Aaron Gordon vs LeBron James
At least in theory, Gordon, 6-8, has the size and athleticism to defend LeBron. These days, more than ever, the 38-year-old James relies on teammates like Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves early in the game before picking his spots later to put points on the board.
The more LBJ attacks the hoop and the less he relies on his fadeaway jumper or three-point shot, the better it is for the Lakers. Once again, the team hopes that the refs will blow their whistles and put James, as well as his teammates, on the free-throw line as often as possible.
3. Jarred Vanderbilt and Dennis Schroder vs Jamal Murray
Murray burned the Lakers in the 2020 series, averaging 25 points on 52% shooting, and has played exceptionally well in the first two rounds this season.
Both Lakers did a credible job defending Steph Curry in the Warriors series, not stopping him but keeping him under control. The hope is they can do the same against Murray.
The Nuggets love to run pick-and-roll plays with Murray and Jokic. An advantage of having Vanderbilt guard Murray is his size, 6-9, when he is forced to switch to Jokic. But of course, Vandy is not much of an offensive threat, as he shot an abysmal 22% against Golden State, just 18% on mostly wide-open corner 3s.
Look for Ham to use a combination of both players to guard Murray in this round.
4- Lakers Team Defense vs Denver
The Lakers held the high-scoring Warriors to just 110 points per game and only 103 in the four victories. Denver, meanwhile, has averaged 116 points in the playoffs so far, 120 in the last four games.
Defending the Nuggets will in some ways be tougher than Golden State. This time around, Davis won’t be able to hang back in or near the paint, essentially playing free safety, because every one of Denver’s starting five can shoot. Four Nuggets starters shot 38% or better from beyond the arc, led by 42% from former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and including Jokic, Murray and Michael Porter. And the fifth player, Gordon, shot a respectable 35%.
How successful the Lakers’ defense is at limiting Denver’s offense will go a long way toward determining the series winner.
5. The benches
This could be one of the Lakers’ biggest advantages. Schroder, Rui Hachimura and Lonnie Walker have all been difference-makers in various games. The minutes that Bamba and/or Thompson provide in this series may be important. And don’t count out either Troy Brown or Malik Beasley, who may also become factors here and there.
Denver relies mainly on guard Bruce Brown off their bench. Former Clipper Reggie Jackson is a capable scorer, but he has struggled with the Nuggets, shooting just 38% from the field and 28% from deep. On occasion, they’ve gotten contributions from veteran Jeff Green and rookie Christian Braun.
The Lakers’ depth could be an important component of this series. LA should greatly benefit from getting any Nuggets starter in foul trouble and forcing their substitutes to play longer than usual.
6. Experience
The Nuggets are a confident group, convinced that their time has arrived. But aside from KCP, none of their players, in particular Jokic and Murray, have been on a team that advanced beyond this round.
The Lakers’ two stars, Davis and James, understand the type of effort needed at this stage of the competition. They will provide an intangible advantage as they lead by example.
Prediction for Lakers-Nuggets Western Conference Finals:
The Lakers will follow the same formula they used in the first two rounds. They will win one of the first two games in Denver along with all their home games, closing out the series in 6 games.