After a very controversial win against the 76ers last week, it seems as if the Lakers will probably end up with the fourth overall pick. In this situation, it would make most sense to just take the best player available, considering their are four prospects that are on another level. Neither Karl Towns Jr. nor Jahlil Okafor have any chance of falling lower than the third pick, so unless the league does the Lakers some favors in the NBA Lottery, we can forget about the next great Lakers center.
After picks one and two, there will be a pair of elite guards that will still be available, D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay. Two players who could not be more different, but in their own ways have the tools to become franchise players in this league. In this article, we will assume that the Lakers end up with Emmanuel Mudiay.
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The story-line of this season has been the play of Jordan Clarkson, who is making a strong case for All-NBA Rookie First-Team, and had he started the whole season, would be in the conversation for Rookie of the Year. However, Clarkson may have a rough time next season if the Lakers end up with Mudiay. Even if Clarkson may be the better player heading into 2015-16 season, the Lakers will make their fourth overall pick the number one priority. Both of these players are ball dominant point guards, who need to be in pick and roll situations to be effective.
In today’s guard-heavy league, one may ask: Why don’t the Lakers just start two point guards? We have seen plenty of teams do it, most notably the Phoenix Suns last year with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. It is important to remember that Dragic is one of the best shooting point guards in the league, allowing him to be very effective off the ball. As for Clarkson, that isn’t really his strength.
According to NBA.com, Clarkson only makes 0.5 catch and shoot shots per game, and makes them at a 35.1% rate. From three, Clarkson makes his catch and shoot opportunities at a 33.8% rate.
Although Mudiay’s stats are limited because he played in China, we do know that he shot 34.2% from three in his twelve games played. So if these two were playing alongside each other, who would drive and who would spot up on the perimeter? Both are very athletic, and specialize at driving to the basket, but when their is a lack of shooters on the court, the lanes close up. First, we know that Clarkson/Mudiay will be hanging around on the perimeter, but lets not forget about the last Lakers’ top pick. Julius Randle, who will likely be the starting power forward next year, was one of the worst shooters in his draft class.
It is unfair to say that Clarkson is a “bad” shooter. Clarkson’s 31% three point percentage may not look like much, but he has improved from his senior year at Missouri (28.1%). Based on his work ethic, Clarkson could reach the mid-thirty percent range by next year, but that still is not enough. First, no matter what Clarkson does, he won’t be a “floor spacer” for at least the next copule years. Next, even if Clarkson does improve quickly, he will always be much more effective with the ball in his hands, rather than spotting up on the perimeter.
One area that has not been brought up is the defensive side of the ball. Defensively, this could actually work. Clarkson may not be a “defensive stopper” but his athleticism allows him to be at least a solid on ball defender. As for Mudiay, his strength and elite athleticism can potentially make him an elite perimeter defender. He has the speed and quickness to stay in front of NBA point guards, and at 6’5″ with a 6’8″ wingspan, can guard wings players.
However, the likely defensive success is not enough to make up for the potential problems on the offensive end. Look at the Detroit Pistons just a year ago. With Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond, the team failed to get easy baskets due to a lack of shooting. Having an elite big man, or a penetrating guard, will be useless unless their are players to space the floor.
The bottom line is that Clarkson and Mudiay are too similar of players to be on the floor at the same time and be effective. The way the NBA is, a team cannot be successful with a backcourt that cannot shoot the ball. And when you factor in Julius Randle and whoever starts at center next year, the Lakers could potentially have only one above average three point shooter in the starting lineup, the Warriors have four.
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