Is History on Lakers Side for No. 1 Pick?
By Nate Edelman
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; A general view as the names of the first round draft picks are displayed above the stage during the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Lakers fans, our terrible season is finally over. Well, it’s practically over. There are technically one game left in the season, which is against the Sacramento Kings. But the most compelling issue of the Lakers season -losing enough to maintain their top 5 pick- can be finally put to rest. Fans who wanted the Lakers to tank and fans who wanted the Lakers to win every game possible can finally set aside any differences and just embrace reality. And that reality is, the Lakers are the fourth-worst team in the NBA. Now, all Lakers fans have to do is to wait for May 19, which is the date for the 2015 NBA Draft Lottery. That is the day when the Lakers draft fate is determined.
What does being fourth-worst mean?
The only fact guaranteed in this upcoming draft is that the Lakers will finish with a top-7 pick. Because the Lakers finished fourth- worst, the odds for each pick go as follows:
1st Pick: 11.9%
2nd Pick: 12.6%
3rd Pick: 13.3%
4th Pick: 9.9%
5th Pick: 35.1%
6th Pick: 16.0%
7th Pick: 1.2%
Unless there is a complete disaster, the Lakers will find themselves holding on to the pick. All together, the Lakers have roughly a 82.2% chance of keeping the pick, and a 37.7% chance of finishing in the top 3. Lakers fans can wholeheartedly say: “Our next star is 82.2% coming.” The season-long debate of Jahlil Okafor or Karl-Anthony Towns will finally be answered in a little more than a month. For those who want to, it is fun to play ESPN’s or Tankathon’s simulated mock draft and see where the Lakers fall and who they select.
This isn’t going to stop Lakers fans like myself worrying about the outside chance that the Lakers will lose the pick. There are many conspiracy theories regarding the NBA lottery being fixed, with the most recent being the NBA paving the way for LeBron James to return to Cleveland.
So let’s take a look at the last five NBA Drafts and let’s see where the team with the fourth worst record landed and most importantly, check the odds of the team that eventually landed the number one pick.
Next: The Cavs Are Spoiled