Lakers Draft Evaluations: Comparing Then & Now
By Nate Edelman
Apr 11, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Ryan Kelly (4) dribbles around Golden State Warriors forward David Lee (10) at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Kelly
NBA Comparison: Nick Fazekas
Strengths:
“Kelly has a nice shot at being a stretch four in the league.. A highly skilled big with great instincts… A very accurate shooter.. Surprisingly efficient defender according to the numbers. Has very good handles for his size and decent vision in the half court.. Excellent passer and decision maker…”
Weaknesses:
“Does not seem to have a frame that will allow him to get much stronger… A better athlete than given credit for but still below average below NBA level.. Will struggle guarding more athletic and stronger forwards in the league.. Dies bit have great foot speed/ foot work, especially moving side to side.. Almost strictly a half court player… Will most likely need to find a team that fits his style in order to find his niche in the NBA.”
“How accurate was his evaluation?
I would say Kelly had an accurate evaluation, but this mainly refers to his weaknesses. Kelly’s Player Efficiency Rating/PER (a standardized measure of player production per minute) was 8.6 last season. To put things in comparison, the league PER average was 15. His win shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) was .027, where the NBA average was .100. Most noticeably, in my opinion, is Kelly’s defensive box plus/minus, a statistic that estimates the defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league average player, then translated to an average team. Kelly’s defensive box plus/minus is an astonishingly low -0.8. To put things in perspective, Andrew Bogut, the league leader in this category, finished with 5.5. I thought that Kelly’s NBA comparison was quite interesting (and somewhat hilarious) because I had no idea who Nick Fazekas was. Fazekas only lasted two years in the NBA before playing overseas, and now is playing in Japan. I thought this comparison was kind of mean, but it is also fitting because Kelly could be out of the league in a few years if he doesn’t improve.
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