Lakers Draft: How No. 2 Pick Affects Free Agency

The Lakers surprising move into the number two position in the draft not only alters the landscape this summer for the team’s free agency moves, it impacts which players from this past year’s roster might be asked to return. There are many fine prospects in the draft but make no mistake about it, absent a blockbuster trade, Karl Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor will be playing center for the Lakers this fall. Given the fact that Julius Randle will be afforded every opportunity to prove he should start at power forward, this means the team’s biggest needs will be at small forward and at guard where Kobe Bryant’s days are numbered.

-== How The Top 5 NBA Prospects Fit With The Lakers ==-

It could have been otherwise. If the Lakers had drafted fourth or fifth as expected, Towns and Okafor would have been gone forcing the team to focus on these other positions. That meant choosing between D’Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Justice Winslow. In that case, the top free agent targets this summer would have been Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Greg Monroe, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kevin Love, all of whom have the unfettered option of signing with whatever team pursues them.

Now, the focus will be on guards and wings, with the prime targets being Draymond Green of Golden State, Jimmy Butler of Chicago, and Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio. All are young, talented players whom the Lakers would be thrilled to get. However, they are “restricted” free agents meaning their current teams can match any offer they receive and retain them.

Still, these young guys are so good that the Lakers are expected to make a run at one of them, presumably the one they think they have the best chance of signing. Leonard is the least likely, since San Antonio has no max contracts at present, should have ample cap space, and Leonard is probably the future face of that franchise. Chicago has some existing high price talent and thus might struggle with the decision to match a max offer from the Lakers. Still, the likelihood is that Chicago will want to sign Butler even if they have to trade someone like Derek Rose to clear cap space. Golden State will want to keep Green, and will certainly try to do so, but with other high priced untouchable talent on the roster like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, Green might be slightly easier than the others to pry away from his current team.

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If these players do not pan out, there are other solid guards and small forwards worth considering. Names mentioned most prominently in recent weeks include Tobias Harris of Orlando and Kris Middleton of Milwaukee, but there are many other good young players like Reggie Jackson, Danny Green, Gerald Green, Wes Matthews, and Goran Dragic who may be available this summer.

The other question is what does the Lakers’ position in the draft mean for last year’s Laker players. The front court last season was manned by Jordan Hill, Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis, Tarik Black, Robert Sacre, and Ryan Kelly. Of these players, only Kelly has a guaranteed contract for next season. The question becomes, if Kelly is the one man returning for sure, and Okafor (for example) and Randle are the two starters, who would best complement these players coming off the bench? Black is a no brainer, an inexpensive rookie this past season who played with heart and energy. The team would probably ask at least one other player to return. Hill, at $9,000,000, is likely too expensive unless the team sees him as a mere expiring contract to be traded at mid-season. Davis should be the one to return, but wouldn’t he prefer the chance to start elsewhere for another team who will likely pay him more than the Lakers? Boozer is gone, and Sacre will return only if there is no one else to sign.

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There is one last factor Laker fans should bear in mind. The team has assembled a nice collection of young assets which, together with ample cap space, provides options and flexibility. The Lakers will add three more rookies this offseason to last year’s solid crop of Randle, Clarkson, Black, and Jabari Brown, which could form the nucleus of an exciting team for years to come. However, the team could prefer a different route, meaning it could very well swing for the fences this offseason in free agency. If so, some of the young talent could be traded to facilitate that process. If the team senses it has a realistic chance to sign one or more legitimate NBA stars no one is safe – not even Randle, Clarkson, and this years’ top draft choice — if trading that player would pave the way for a Gasol and/or an Aldrich to join the team. There is also Kevin Durant to think about, who is the Lakers’ main target over the next year.

It is a high-stakes chess game, and trying to fit the pieces together while making the right moves is very complicated. After many missteps over the past few years, a lot is riding on Mitch Kupchak’s skill and foresight this offseason. We can only hope he will be at his very best as he tries to assemble a great team, for now and for the future, from lots of possible sources. Stay tuned for what is likely to be an exciting and unpredictable offseason.

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