As we crawl painstakingly to the draft June 25, articles about prospect interviews will feature infinite examples of potential draftees saying they’re good at basketball. What else would they say?
“You know what, I’m just not good enough to play at the next level. I should consider a career change even though I’m on the verge of millions of dollars and the fame that comes with earning one of the most sought-after careers in the world.”
-== How The Top 5 NBA Prospects Fit With The Lakers ==-
Yet, for some reason, we parse, over-analyze and criticize kids for saying the type of thing we would all say if put in the same situation. If you were asked the same ridiculous questions about your confidence and knew heading into said interview that any answer other than “Yes, I’m good at basketball” would harm your chances of earning a life-changing amount of money playing basketball, you would repeat some version of “I’m good at basketball.”
Monday, it was Arizona small forward prospect Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s turn, and he went about saying he’s good at basketball in an interesting way. Bill Oram of the OC Register tweeted this out:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson at Lakers workout: “Men lie, women lie. Numbers don’t.”
— Bill Oram (@billoram) June 8, 2015
The interesting thing here isn’t that men and women lie. Hollis-Jefferson kind of needs the numbers to lie.
At Arizona, he averaged only 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds (a good number for a wing) per game. He shot over 49% from the field but only 21% from three-point range. Those numbers won’t blow anyone away.
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Ironically, they don’t tell a proper story on Hollis-Jefferson. He is easily one of the best defensive prospects in the draft, which is harder to numerically clarify than a scorer might be able to quantify. Defensive rating is considered the best statistic to figure out a players’ worth, and Hollis-Jefferson boasts an impressive 88.6 rating and a net rating (offensive minus defensive) of just under 30 (again, really good), but there are four other players on the court and they also have something to do with a players’ statistic worth.
For example, if Steve Nash, an otherwise terrible defender was surrounded by four other tremendous defenders, he’d have a great defensive rating. That wouldn’t necessarily make him a great defender, only one who doesn’t altogether mess up what the rest of his team is capable of doing on that side of the ball.
In that case, to a certain extent, the numbers can lie. For Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, in order to climb the draft board, he’ll need the offensive numbers to do just that.
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