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NBA Draft 2016: Simulating Lakers’ Lottery Chances at Start of April

By Cody Williams

Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the stage before the start of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 25, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; General view of the stage before the start of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Lakers have their eye on the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery, so we simulated their chances of keeping their pick at the start of April

With the start of April comes the merciful promise that the 2015-16 NBA season is almost mercifully over for the Los Angeles Lakers. From start to finish, it’s been a grinding affair for fans and players alike due to the lack of success, the varying instances of unnecessary drama, and everything in between. However, it’s almost at its conclusion and now fans and the Lakers organization alike are eyeing the 2016 NBA Draft and, more specifically, the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery.

The NBA Draft Lottery will take place on May 17 in just over a month and anyone with a vested interest in the Lakers has their eye on it. The Lakers could desperately use a lottery pick and have been bad enough this season to be in position to grab one. However, the Ping-Pong balls will have to fall their way—as most fans know—because their pick will transfer to the Philadelphia 76ers if it falls outside of the top-3.

With so much at stake in the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery, it’s something that we and all fans have had eyes on all season. As we’ve done many times before throughout the season, we once again simulated the NBA Draft Lottery (using tankathon.com) 100 times.

The Lakers still have the second best lottery odds with a 19.9 percent chance of getting the first-overall pick in the 2016 draft and a 55.8 percent chance of keeping their pick with it falling in the top-3. On April 1, these are the results of those simulations as they pertain to the Lakers’ pick.

No. 1 Pick: 19
No. 2 Pick: 18
No. 3 Pick: 25
No. 4 or Lower (Lose Pick): 38

That’s an interesting way that things played out considering that it was the No. 3 pick that was the most frequent landing spot for the Lakers pick if they keep it. Moreover, it’s also interesting that the Lakers kept their pick 62 percent of the time, a higher number than their actual odds in the NBA Draft Lottery, in these simulations.

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Lakers fans can only hope that’s the way things actually play out as they are still a rebuilding team and a franchise in transition. Obviously this is something everyone will have their eyes on leading up to May 17—and hopefully Lakers fans can then eye the draft with a first-round pick coming their way.

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