NBA Draft 2016: Simulating Lakers Lottery Odds in Late April

Simulating the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery in late April to see what happens with the Lakers’ first-round pick

Whether it’s comforting or even more unsettling than ever before, the Los Angeles Lakers are less than a month away from finally having some sort of resolution in regards to what will happen with their first round pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. There has been plenty of anxiety conjured up regarding the fate of the pick over the past season, but everything will be decided in less than a month on May 17 when the Ping-Pong balls fall how they may.

The Lakers pick has certainly sparked a great deal of debate over the past season for a number of reasons. There have been those who have maintained that losing the pick wouldn’t be the worst thing for the franchise while there are fans on the opposite end of the spectrum. Similarly, there are those who were opposed to how the Lakers let the pick hang over their 2015-16 season and others who believed it should’ve been at the forefront.

In essence, though, none of that matters anymore. The Lakers finished the season with the second-worst record in the NBA and now have a 55.8 percent chance of keeping their pick by it falling in the top-3 and a 19.9 percent chance of winning the No. 1-overall pick in the NBA Draft Lottery. 

As such, it’s always good to see where the odds fall in the lottery for the Lakers on a given day. With less than a month remaining until May 17, we again ran the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery 100 times to see what happened with the Lakers pick using These are those results:

No. 1 Pick: 22 percent

No. 2 Pick: 15 percent

No. 3 Pick: 14 percent

No. 4 Pick or Below (Lose Pick): 49 percent

It’s certainly not great to see the Lakers losing the pick nearly half the time and more times than their odds would indicate with these simulations. However, it is interesting to see how the simulations are bookended with losing the pick more times than the odds suggest while also getting the No. 1 pick more times than the odds suggest.

We’ll see how the actual 2016 NBA Draft Lottery plays out soon enough. However, this again gives fans an idea of where things stand and of what could happen on May 17.