Lakers Best and Worst Case Scenario: NBA Draft Lottery 2016
By Eric Yee
Worst Case Scenario
Similar to the former, the worst case scenario for the Lakers is relatively simple to determine: losing the pick entirely.
When looking at the odds, though the Lakers have a 55.8 percent chance of landing in the top three — consisting of adding the percentages of getting the first (19.9 percent), second (18.8 percent) and third (17.1 percent) picks — their highest individual percentage is at landing the fourth overall pick (31.9 percent).
Moreover, history is not on the Lakers’ side as more often than not a team in Los Angeles’ position falls out of the top three. Take a look at the past 20 drafts for reference:
"During that 20-year period, the team with the second-worst record moved up to the top pick just once, way back in 1996. The 76ers used it to select Allen Iverson. Over the same 20 years, the second-worst team stayed in place and received the second pick of the draft only twice- the Knicks in 2006 and the Bulls in 2002. And in the last 20 years, the team in the pre-lottery number 2 position dropped to third pick five times, most recently Chicago in 2004. So that means over the last 20 years, teams in the Lakers position have finished with a top three pick only eight times, 40 percent of the time… which of course is far less than the odds of 55.8 percent."
We are well aware of the Gambler’s Fallacy, but those numbers aren’t encouraging by any means.
Adding insult to injury, the situation could get worse if:
- The Philadelphia 76ers get the first overall pick AND the Lakers’ pick
- The Boston Celtics somehow jump the Lakers and land the top pick
Next: Top 25 Free Agents the Lakers Should Pursue
The draft is only a day away, so until then we will get our fingers crossed.