NBA Draft Lottery 2016 By the Numbers

Looking at the numbers behind the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery

The 2016 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 17 and the Los Angeles Lakers have a lot invested in the outcome. While they enter the lottery with the second best odds of any team of getting the No. 1 pick, the Lakers could lose their pick if it falls outside of the top-3.

Because of that fact, the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery could either be a gift or a curse. In either case, though, it’s important to know both your enemies and your friends. As such, let’s dive into the lottery by the numbers.

Obviously the first thing that comes to mind, though, is that you have to look at the breakdown of the odds in this particular lottery, what chances each team has at getting the top pick and what chances each team has of getting a top-3 pick:

Going a bit more in-depth, though, there’s a lot of interesting notes that the numbers tell about the lottery. Perhaps the biggest one of all is that the 2015 NBA Draft was the first time since 2004 that the team with the best lottery odds and worst record the previous season won the No. 1 overall pick.

Especially when looking at the Lakers, it’s also important to look at the numbers behind having the second-best odds to get the No. 1 pick. Unfortunately, those aren’t particularly favorable. The Los Angeles Clippers were the last team to pull that off back in 2009, but it’s only happened three other times since the institution of the lottery system in 1985.

Also possibly of interest is the fact that the lowest odds to actually win the No. 1 overall pick was the Orlando Magic in 1993 as they had just a 1.52 percent chance and still won it. Right behind, them, though, is the 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers who had only a 1.7 percent chance and still ended up with the top pick.

Perhaps the most harrowing look at the NBA Draft Lottery in regards to the Lakers, though, is looking at the previous 10 lotteries. Of those, the team with the second best odds of getting the No. 1 pick has fallen out of the top-3 seven times.

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Who knows what will actually happen on Tuesday evening at the 2016 NBA Draft Lottery. But recent history paints a scary picture for the Lakers. Let’s hope fans are pleasantly surprised when it’s all over, though.