Los Angeles Lakers should trade No. 2 pick to Sacramento Kings for No. 5, No. 10

The Los Angeles Lakers are sitting pretty with the No. 2 and No. 28 pick, but wouldn’t they be better off with the No. 5, No. 10 and possibly keeping the No. 28 pick as well?

All this Lonzo Ball drama, will he try out for the Los Angeles Lakers? Will he be willing to compete against anyone or will he have a good tryout? The answers are yes, no, and we will see.

Lakers beat writer Mark Medina told our Lake Show Life contributor Eric Brown that he didn’t think the Lakers were possibly using Lonzo as a decoy. But this is a theory I have had all along; the Lakers are pulling a page out of the Charlotte Hornets pre-2000 century playbook. Act like you want a player only to draft him and immediately trade him to a team who wants him more. I still think it’s a big possibility.

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Medina points out the risks with Ball as well:

"It could be a PR dream if Lonzo plays well and they have another player that wants to take advantage of the marketing/media exposure that the Lakers provide.It could be a nightmare if Lonzo struggles and his dad publicly questions the organization, coaching staff or players."

The entire Lakers organization seems to be accommodating LaVar Ball‘s wishes all along, but I keep thinking, why do we want a player who is unwilling to compete at a workout against another player?

Kobe Bryant didn’t do any negotiating when working out for teams. Confident and a leader, Kobe would take on anyone anywhere. Here is a segment from CBS Sports writer Ken Berger on how Kobe’s Lakers workouts went with then GM Jerry West:

"The signature session was in LA for the Lakers, with Hall of Famer Jerry West famously cutting the workout short because he’d “seen enough.” As chronicled by Bleacher Report’s Kevin Ding, the Lakers actually worked out Bryant twice: first, watching him dominate assistant coach Michael Cooper and then bringing him back to the Inglewood YMCA to battle with fellow prospect Dontae’ Jones, who’d just led Mississippi State to the Final Four.It was the same story: Bryant dominated both, displaying toughness, confidence, footwork, explosiveness and competitive drive well beyond his years."

Kobe battled in his workout with the Lakers, no fear, nasty take-no-prisoners attitude, he must have reeked of success.

Bryant was drafted No. 13 in the 1996 NBA Draft by the Charlotte Hornets behind notables No. 1 Allen Iverson, No. 4 Stephon Marbury, and No. 5 Ray Allen. Steven Nash was in the same draft and was chosen No. 15. Yes, that is interesting looking back on it, but what is more interesting and what is driving my point here is that Kobe was immediately traded to the Lakers.

What would happen if the Lakers ended up with the No. 2 pick that year? They would have Marcus Camby, who played 17 years in the NBA for six different teams, but mostly for the Denver Nuggets (six years) and New York Knicks (five years). Camby averaged 9.5 points and 9.8 rebounds. Not too shabby, a solid player, but was he Kobe Bryant? Umm, no disrespect to Marcus, a great NBA Player, but the answer is no.

So I have a theory. It is not where you are drafted that makes you a great NBA player, it is the intangibles that make you great. The attitude, the confidence, the leadership, the skill of course, but also the players’ tenacity, willingness to improve and be coachable, at least until they rule the court like LeBron James.

Could the Lakers be using this same methodology with their No. 2 pick? They may want to look back on history before jumping the gun. Look at what a No. 13th pick accomplished in his career:

Recently, Tim, an Analytics Director & Scout for a D1 basketball program, contributor to Laker Film Room and TSJ Sports, and basketball analytics and scheme analysis guru thought to put together an NBA Draft picks results analysis.

He analyzed past draft picks and the percentages a particular pick would be an All-Star, a starter or a backup and published it for all of us to play around with.

For the No. 2 pick, the results were as follows:

• There is a 32% chance that player will be an All-Star
• There is a 38% chance that player will be a Starter
• There is a 20% chance that player will be a backup
• There is a 10% chance that player will be sitting at the end-of-the-bench or worse

If you compare that with the No. 5 pick, the odds are not that much different, can we live with this?

• There is a 27% chance that player will be an All-Star
• There is a 30% chance that player will be a Starter
• There is a 32% chance that player will be a backup
• There is an 11% chance that player will be sitting at the end-of-the-bench or worse

Now let’s look at the No. 10 pick:

• There is an 18% chance that player will be an All-Star
• There is a 21% chance that player will be a Starter
• There is a 32% chance that player will be a backup
• There is a 9% chance that player will be sitting at the end-of-the-bench or worse

Related Story: 10 Greatest Draft Picks In Lakers History

In all three cases, there is a 9-11% chance the player will be a flop, so there is parity there. Both the No. 5 and No. 10 picks have a 32% chance to be a backup player, so that’s equal as well. What’s interesting is that the No. 28 pick also has a 32% chance to be a backup player which is the same for the No. 5 and No. 10 picks.

So it comes down to if these picks will be starters or All-Stars, both of which the Lakers are looking for. There is only a 5% difference between the No. 2 and No. 5 pick of whether the player could become an All-Star. I think I can live with that, but there is an 8% increased chance the player will become a starter if the player was a No. 2 pick. Tim concludes that having the No. 5 and No. 10 pick net’s a better chance of drafting an All-Star.

The Lakers should trade the No. 2 pick to the Sacramento Kings for the No. 5 and No. 10 pick if Sacramento wants Lonzo Ball or anyone in the top five. Two solid top ten picks along with the 28th pick, unless they have to throw that into the trade, is more reasonable and gives the Lakers more options moving forward. Look what happened in 2010! Paul George and DeMarcus Cousins went No. 5 and No. 10!

Tim says the number back my cause but his gut says not to do it, just so we are clear on his position:

Here is the No. 13 pick in the 1996 NBA Draft, Lakers legend and some day Hall of Famer, Kobe Bryant after being drafted just in case you missed it:

Next: Full First Round 2017 NBA Mock Draft

If nothing else it is food for thought, and I for one would not be mad at Magic and Pelinka if they made a deal like that. I’m still a fan of Lonzo Ball, just not a fan of him shying away from competition at a workout. Go Lakers! Do the right thing!