Los Angeles Lakers: 2019 best and worst case offseason scenarios

Decent Scenario: The Lakers sign Jimmy Butler to a 4-year max contract and then fill out the rotation with satisfactory 3-and-D players and a cheap defender.

Jimmy Butler’s stats have been down since he was traded to the 76ers. After arriving in Philadelphia he’s averaging 18 PPG, 5 RPG, and 4 APG. He also didn’t make the All-Star team for the first time in four years.

A deeper look into his stats shows that he hasn’t been great on offense since becoming a Sixer:

• Butler’s shooting 33% from 3 on 122 attempts since joining the 76ers.
• He’s averaging 0.99 points per iso possession while on the Sixers.
• He has a .503 effective field goal percentage since coming to Philadelphia.

The stats listed above aren’t bad, but compare them to the player he might be replacing in the Lakers starting lineup: Brandon Ingram.

• 18 PPG, 5 RPG, and 3 APG
• Ingram’s shooting 33% from 3 on 94 attempts this season
• Ingram’s averaging 1.00 points per iso possession for the season
• He has a .518 effective field goal percentage

Butler and Ingram’s offensive stats are eerily the same, but Ingram’s 21 years old and not even close to his prime while Butler’s 29 which is typically a peak year for NBA players.

Butler’s defensive metrics are better than Ingram’s (Butler has a 108 DEFRTG and a 0.7 DBPM while Ingram has 112 DEFRTG and a -0.7 DBPM), but after scanning the Sixers message boards, it’s clear that most Philadelphia fans haven’t been pleased with Butler’s defensive effort.

As Butler’s been getting ripped on by Philadelphia fans for his intensity, or lack thereof, on D, Ingram’s really turned a corner on the less glamorous side of the ball. Since the new year, he’s quietly becoming one of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

The question is: Has Jimmy Butler struggled since coming to Philadelphia because he doesn’t fit into Brett Brown’s offensive system or are his best years behind him?

Only Butler can answer that question, but if the Lakers do sign Jimmy this offseason to a 4-year max contract it’ll be a gamble. Magic and Pelinka would be counting on Butler to regain his old form from Minnesota and Chicago.

They’d also be banking on the fact that his attitude problems in Minnesota and Philadelphia were due to bad situations and that he’d be a great leader next to LeBron.

The Lakers coaching staff would also have a starting lineup problem because Butler doesn’t fill an immediate need for the Purple and Gold (LA really needs a new starting center).

Who would Butler replace in the starting lineup? Maybe the Lakers would move Ingram to the bench and run out a starting lineup of:

• Ball
• Butler
• James
• Kuzma
• ?

There’s not much shooting in that starting lineup and there’s the question of finding a starting caliber center and a couple of players who can hit from distance off the bench. The Lakers are going to have to find a few more quality rotation players with just about $6 million left over after the Lakers sign Butler to around $32 million per year.

Perhaps the Lakers could convince Joakim Noah to come to Los Angeles to start on a minimum salary and then they could sign Seth Curry and Terrence Ross for around $2 million apiece.

If my “decent” scenario plays out over the summer the Lakers roster will look like this next season:

Starters:

• Ball
• Butler
• James
• Kuzma
• Noah

Bench

• Ingram
• Curry
• Hart
• Ross
• Wagner

If Butler excelled and Noah didn’t get injured, the Lakers might have the No. 1 ranked defense in the league next season with the lineup listed above. In addition, they’d certainly be a top-4 seed in the West.

In the end, this scenario has too many what-ifs to be considered a great offseason for the Lakers, but it would be much better than signing Cousins or Jordan to 1-year deals.