Los Angeles Lakers: Which young core member has the highest ceiling?
Lonzo Ball
The case for Lonzo Ball:
During the 2018-2019 season Lonzo Ball showed that at age 21, he’s already a great defender, with a chance to become a 1st team All-Defense team member when he hits his prime.
Lonzo Ball finished the year ranked 8th among 102 point guards in ESPN’s defensive real plus-minus, plus he was the only player 21 years or younger to make the top 10.
Ball stands at 6’6″, 190 pounds, which gives him the size to bother opposing guards on the perimeter and to also the capacity to muscle up his assignment on the block, but what makes Zo special on the less glamorous side of the ball is his preternatural ability to understand where the ball is going before the other players on the court.
Ball leverages his high basketball IQ to jump passing lanes, grab timely rebounds, and to be a huge nuisance on defense, all of which has led to his impressive career averages of 1.6 steals per game and 6.2 rebounds per outing.
Throughout last season, the Lakers were 4.2 points better on defense when Lonzo Ball was on the floor, a number that should continue to rise as Zo matures.
On offense, Lonzo Ball averaged 9.5 potential assists per game last season, good for 5th among all players 21 years old or younger. Lonzo’s assist numbers by themselves are good, but when you realize that he shared the court with LeBron James, who averaged 16 potential assists per game (2nd in the NBA) and Rajon Rondo who averaged 14.4 potential assists per contest (7th in the NBA) then his transcendent passing ability comes to light.
He still managed to average over nine potential assists per outing while sharing the court with not just one, but two of the best passers in the NBA, who dominate the ball.
The case against Lonzo Ball:
Lonzo’s defense was special last season, but outside of his ability to pass the ball, his offense was awful.
Great offensive point guards excel in four play types: isolation, pick-and-roll, off of a screen, and 3-point shooting.
Here’s how Lonzo Ball did in those areas:
- Isolation: 0.93 ppp (64th percentile)
- Pick-and-roll: 0.69 ppp (22nd percentile)
- Off of a screen: 0.53 ppp (3rd percentile)
- 3-point shooting: 32.9% (153rd out of 262 guards)
Lonzo Ball hasn’t shown that he can orchestrate a half-court offense at the point guard position because he can’t run pick-and-rolls, he can’t work off of screens, and he can’t spread the floor with his 3-point shooting.
Lonzo lacks the ability to threaten opposing defenses when he has the ball in his hands, which is a problem.