Los Angeles Lakers: Realistic expectations for Alex Caruso’s 2019-20 season

After signing a two-year, $5.5 million deal, Alex Caruso will have a shot to become a consistent contributor with the Los Angeles Lakers this season.

When Los Angeles Lakers guard Alex Caruso signed a two-year, $5.5 million deal in July, many of the have-nots celebrated his come up. The 6’5″, 186-pounder, who doesn’t look like an athletic playmaker parlayed an NBA G League stint and a two-way deal into an extended stay on the main roster.

Caruso started to flash with the Lakers early March when he saw significant minutes on a team headed nowhere without LeBron James for a handful of contests; Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball became non-factors late in the year because of injuries. He eclipsed 20 points twice, but his best game came against the Los Angeles Clippers April 5th, recording a double-double, 32 points and 10 rebounds.

Now that Caruso has given spectators a glimpse of his potential, how will he fare in a full season with the Lakers? Is it time to take the social media hype around him seriously?

Starting Opportunity?

According to Mike Trudell of the team’s official site, Caruso will have a chance to start for the Purple and Gold. He cited the guard’s defensive prowess and a small sign of his productive on-court coexistence with James.

"I then took a longer look at Caruso, and think he has a chance to earn the starting PG job … though that of course depends how Bradley looks, and what Vogel thinks about Rondo and Cook. One thing Caruso has going for him, with a small-sample-size disclaimer: he was much better on the court next to LeBron than Rondo last season:Two-Man Line Up DataRondo+LeBron: 105.5 ORTG. 110.9 DRTG. -5.4 NET in 602 minutes (35 games)Caruso+LeBron: 111.7 ORTG. 102.6 DRTG. +9.1 NET in 147 minutes (10 games)"

Of course, anyone who doesn’t mesh well with James must be banished from the kingdom, but that’s not an issue for Caruso based on the metrics shown above.

Typically, James plays well with wings and guards who can space the floor and play solid defense; Caruso checks both boxes. Although it’s a small sample (50 attempts), he knocked down 48 percent of his three-point shots last season.

Alex Caruso’s Competition for Minutes

In his career, guard Rajon Rondo hasn’t developed a reliable jump shot; He’s not a persistent on-ball defender either.

Avery Bradley seems like the frontrunner to open the season with the starting five; he’s done so with the Boston Celtics, Detroit Pistons, Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies. The 28-year-old had short tenures with the other team in Los Angeles and the Pistons, but rediscovered his game with the Grizzlies, averaging 16.1 points and four assists while knocking down 46 percent from the floor in 14 games last year.

Obviously, Caruso doesn’t measure up to Bradley in experience, but head coach Frank Vogel must decide if the former G leaguer has untapped potential that could help his star-studded first unit.

What’s Working Against Him?

Anyone who’s watched James’ teams come together in the past know he favors veteran players with a high basketball IQ. Does Caruso know when to cut to the basket for an easy bucket? Will he make the right pass on the money to a backdoor slasher? Can he continue to knock down open shots when defenders drop off of him?

In theory, solid defense comes from great effort; Caruso won’t come up short in that area, but he must be able to spread the floor or become an alternative facilitator to share the floor with James. If not, he’s better off mixing more so with the second unit.

From the outside looking in, Bradley probably receives the nod because he’s a proven commodity with a decent jumper and ball-handling capability. Don’t forget, he played under Celtics’ lead skipper Brad Stevens, who’s praised as one of the brilliant minds within the coaching ranks.

Final Projection

We may not see Caruso with the starting five, but he’s primed to averaging 20-21 minutes per game. In this day and age, when players sit out for load management, reserves see more run to fill in the gaps.

Vogel will likely pull back on James’ and Anthony Davis‘ minutes to keep them fresh for the long run, specifically playoff basketball assuming this team qualifies for a spot.

When James sits out, Vogel will need ball distributors on the court. The Lakers won’t run the floor as they did with last year’s younger group, but Caruso can potentially set guys up in half-court sets.

Lastly, Caruso’s defense should appeal to Vogel, who coached some defensively-skilled Indiana Pacers teams between 2010-16. In that span, his squads ranked top-10 in points allowed five times.

Caruso isn’t likely to have a major impact most nights, but a 3-and-D type player with some dimes will keep him relevant on a team with high expectations.

2019-20 Stat line: 20.3 minutes, 9.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 45 percent FGs, 37 percent 3FG