Los Angeles Lakers: Examining Zach LaVine’s potential fit with the team

Pros of Zach LaVine on the Los Angeles Lakers:

1. Gravity

Below is a statistical table of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, sorted by player three-point percentage.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Notice a trend here? Outside of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Danny Green, no regular rotation player is an above-average three-point shooter at a reasonable volume of attempts.

Meanwhile, the Lakers’ best two players, Anthony Davis and LeBron James, shoot 80.5% and 67.6% of their shots inside the three-point line respectively. A tertiary offensive option, one with immense offensive gravity and the ability to space the floor, would allow Davis and James to have cleaner looks from their favorite shooting spots.

Enter Zach LaVine.

According to Bball Index’s Player Gravity app, LaVine’s three-point gravity is in the 98th percentile (9th overall) in the entire league. As a comparison, KCP’s three-point gravity is in the 74th percentile, and Danny Green’s is in the 82nd percentile.

Player gravity appears to manifest itself as a combination of proficiency and volume. Case in point, LaVine’s three-point percentage is excellent for a volume shooter (8.1 attempts per-game at 38.0%), so even though his percentage is slightly lower than KCP’s and only slightly higher than Green’s, his three-point gravity is significantly higher than both.

LaVine’s sheer offensive gravity would force Laker opponents to pick their poison. His three-point prowess is made even more impressive when you realize that he’s currently in the 9th percentile in terms of the openness of his three-point attempts, and in the 0th percentile in terms of the talent of his teammates on the offensive end.

Imagine being forced to choose between leaving an elite contested shot-maker open or giving Anthony Davis and LeBron James the space to operate freely on the interior? That’s a nightmare scenario for any opponent.

2. A secondary ball-handler

Within the context of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, it can be argued that while Anthony Davis is the team’s best player, LeBron James is the team’s most important player. Case in point, the Lakers go from having a +/- differential of 8.1 with LeBron on the court to a +/- differential of -0.3 when he sits.

This alarming discrepancy highlights one of the most significant flaws with the current roster construction, lack of depth when it comes to offense initiators.

Rajon Rondo is still a very good passer and can run an offensive, but is a complete non-threat to score the ball, as evidenced by his offensive gravity being below 50% across the board. Avery Bradley is a valuable role-player, he’s just not a good secondary playmaker.

Alex Caruso surprisingly has potential in the role when you look at his per-75 possession numbers, but the problem is that the sample size is incredibly small.

On the surface, Zach LaVine profiles as a solid-not-great passer. His 4.5 assists per game, when viewed in the context of his 31.7% usage-rate (9th in the NBA), is mediocre, even compared to shooting guards with a reputation of ball-hogging like James Harden (7.4 assists per game and a 36.4% usage-rate).

However, raw assist statistics don’t take into account just how bad the 2019-20 Chicago Bulls are on the offensive end of the court. Don’t believe me? Through the first 59 games of the season, their most common starting lineup as per lineups.com was as follows:

• PG: Tomas Satoransky
• SG: Zach LaVine
• SF: Kris Dunn
• PF: Lauri Markannen
• C: Wendell Carter Jr

To date, Lauri Markannen is their second option and he’s averaging 14.7 ppg on 42.5% shooting. Yikes.

In determining the playmaking impact of individual players, some of my new favorite advanced statistics (all courtesy of BBall Index) are:

• Potential Assists per 100 passes – this one is significant as it mitigates the impact of having awful teammates who can’t finish shots.
• High-Value Assists per 75 passes – a high-value assist is defined as a three-point assist, a rim assist, or a free-throw assist.
• Box Creation – an estimate of open shots carved out for teammates by drawing defensive attention using box score metrics only.
• High-Value Assists +/- – a metric that assesses a player’s ability to generate high-value scoring opportunities for teammates relative to their passing aggressiveness and ball control.

In the context of the above statistics, LaVine ranks in the following percentiles:

• Potential Assists per 100 passes – 84%
• High-Value Assists per 75 passes – 77%
• Box Creation – 89%
• High-Value Assists +/- – 72%

LaVine is clearly no LeBron James (who ranks in the 99th percentile or above for 7 of BBall Index’s 8 advanced passing metrics) or even a Rajon Rondo when it comes to passing. However, it’s clear from the above statistics that he’s a surprisingly above-average playmaker, far more adept than his box-score would have you believe.

LaVine’s presence on the Lakers’ roster would with something that the team doesn’t currently have outside of James: a shot-creating wing who also doubles as a playmaker. If the coaching staff staggered James’ and LaVine’s bench minutes as much as possible, the offensive potential would be through the roof.

Unfortunately, it’s not all good news when it comes to assessing LaVine’s fit with the Los Angeles Lakers.