NBA odds: Statistical models and oddsmakers all favor Lakers as Finals favorites

NBA odds makers and math nerds all think the Lakers will win the Finals

This year it’s increasingly difficult to project who will win in the postseason and ultimately hoist the trophy at the end of the NBA Finals. With new factors at play in the NBA’s Disney World bubble, it’s hard to say which way certain things will fall and how things will play out over the coming weeks for the Los Angeles Lakers and the other 21 teams in the bubble.

COVID is a new, unique factor and the risk of star players getting infected will be a chilling, omnipresent factor. Tack on the fact that a level playing field with no fans may elevate some teams and bring others down. This is all baked into the fact that sports are a very tricky thing to predict with certainty.

It’s muddled, and the way oddsmakers and statisticians handle these factors is interesting if nothing else.

For the Lakers, they’re getting love from both of those groups.

The Los Angeles Lakers are NBA odds favorites to win the NBA Finals

According to OddsShark, the Los Angeles Lakers are favorites (+200) with the Milwaukee Bucks trailing (+280) and the LA Clippers rounding out the top-three (+300). There is a massive dropoff in odds at four with the Celtics, who come in at +1200.

Vegas Insider has the Lakers at +240 and the Bucks trailing at +250.

SportsBettingDime has the Lakers at +190 and the Bucks at +277.

MyBookie has the Lakers at +185 and the Bucks at +275.

No matter where you look, it’s the Lakers by a hair.

Statistical models think the Lakers will win the Finals

FiveThirtyEight produces some robust statistical projection models that predict which teams have the greatest likelihood of making the Finals. Their RAPTOR ranking rates players and teams, and the Lakers currently project within that model to have the best chance of making the NBA Finals (45 percent) as well as the best chance of winning it all (31 percent).

FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Forecast has somewhat more conservative projections for the Lakers. Under that model, the Lakers have a 37 percent chance of making the NBA Finals (best in the Western Conference) and a 19 percent chance of winning the NBA Finals (Milwaukee leads with a 35 percent chance of winning under Elo).

Lakers fans will debate that the Bucks have better chances at winning the Finals, but things are looking good for the Lakers on all fronts for making the Finals, despite rough news recently about Rajon Rondo being out for 6-plus weeks.