Battle #3: Transition defense, plus a prediction on who wins
The Los Angeles Lakers’ bugaboo is their transition defense. With prolific scorers dotting Portland’s roster, the Lakers better get back on defense to have a chance of stopping them. How will they do tonight?
Only counting the bubble, the Lakers are dead last in fast-break points allowed. They were also last whenever the season paused back in March. This is their Achilles’ heel.
I was shocked when I saw Portland ranking fifth in the same category. Their half-court defense is putrid. I was assuming their transition defense was too.
Nope!
Their offense is their defense. Sasha Pavlovic may have coined the term. Portland has taken Pavlovic’s words to heart (ironically, Pavlovic had a brief stint with the team in 2012). As crazy as it sounds, there is a logical premise behind the legendary quote: getting back on defense is easier after a made basket.
Given Portland’s awesome offense, it makes sense their transition defense would actually be pretty good. Damian Lillard knocking down shots from half-court takes the wind out of any defense’s sails, but it also slows down their offense. Everyone can already get back on defense after Dame knocks down his trademark three-pointer coming off the dribble to his left.
They send all their guards back, only leaving Nurkic to crash the glass. He is beast on the boards, so he gets quite a bit of offensive rebounds on his own. Nurkic figures to get less when he competes with Anthony Davis and another big man inside.
The Lakers will score in the half-court. They must score in transition to keep up.
Only the Oklahoma City Thunder have a worse offensive rating in the bubble (the Wizards are technically last, but do they really count?) and this website has lambasted the Lakers ice-cold shooting. They finally wised up and stopped missing countless open three-pointers.
What do they need to do tonight? Attack the paint in transition. This goal coincides with my first and second metric: points in the paint and assisted two-pointers.
Imagine the rewards! LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma going full speed to the basket, terrorizing the Blazers’ smallish wings. Anthony Davis routinely beats Nurkic and Zach Collins down the court each time.
See below for my prediction on who wins tonight.
Conclusion: who wins tonight?
Portland will be emotionally and physically exhausted after fighting for such a long period of time. Fatigue often manifests itself in missing outside shots and defensive timing, both of which will punish Portland big time.
The Lakers will relentlessly pound it inside to dominate the game. Expect a throwback performance in honor of the late, great Kobe Bryant.
Prediction: Lakers win 121-107