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Los Angeles Lakers: 3 reasons the Blazers won’t win another game this series

By Luca De Angelis

LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - AUGUST 22: Anthony Davis #3 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after scoring against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of Game Three of the first round of the playoffs between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers at the AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on August 22, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images)
LAKE BUENA VISTA, FLORIDA - AUGUST 22: Anthony Davis #3 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts after scoring against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half of Game Three of the first round of the playoffs between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers at the AdventHealth Arena at the ESPN Wide World Of Sports Complex on August 22, 2020 in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images) – Los Angeles Lakers
(Photo by Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images) – Los Angeles Lakers /

2. The Los Angeles Lakers’ defense increases their margin for error

This season, the calling card of the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers has been their elite defense, which was ranked 3rd in the NBA during the regular season.

The adage “Defense wins championships” has existed for a long time and it’s one that I buy into. Recently, even analytical pieces on the subject have given credence to this school of thought.

If I had to simplify why this adage often proves to be true without the use of complex numbers and analytics, it’s because elite team defense is the most repeatable aspect of basketball on a game-to-game basis.

Even at the NBA level, no team is going to shoot well every single game. Game to game, shooting percentages will vary a lot. Even the all-time great shooting teams like the dynastic Golden State Warriors had nights where their shots just wouldn’t fall, even if they weren’t particularly frequent.

However, having an elite defense greatly increases a team’s margin for error in games where shots aren’t falling.

For a 2019-20 postseason case study, look no further than Game 1 of this series.

In a 100-93 loss, the Los Angeles Lakers shot a horrific 35.1% from the field, 15.6% from three, and 64.5 percent from the line. With those types of single-game shooting splits, the majority of teams would lose by at least 20 points. Yet, the Lakers didn’t trail for good until the 3:13 mark of the 4th quarter and trailed by only two points at the 1:35 mark of the quarter.

There’s no such thing as a moral victory in the NBA, but after losing Game 1, the Lakers would’ve felt quietly confident in their prospects for the rest of the series. On a night where their shooting percentages were the worst clip they’d hit in a single game all season, the Lakers’ defense allowed them to remain in the contest and almost steal an improbable victory.

On the flipside, before Game 1, the Blazers had gone 36 straight games conceding more than 100 points. In the regular season, Portland was ranked as the 27th defense in the NBA, an atrocious number for any team, let alone a playoff team.

Even in the regular season bubble when they went 6-2, the Blazers team defense ranked 20th out of 22 teams, only trailing the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets.

Based on their body of work this season, the Blazers have shown an inability to consistently stop opposing teams from scoring, evidence that they are not built to win games on nights their shots aren’t falling.

Across the three games played so far, both teams are shooting well below their season averages across the floor (except for the Blazers at the free-throw line, who are shooting right on their season average of 80%), so I do expect some positive regression to occur for both teams.

However, only one team has demonstrated the ability to consistently play lockdown defense and stay in games where their shot isn’t falling, and that’s the Lakers.

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