Los Angeles Lakers Tactical Preview: Heat vs Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers have a formidable NBA Finals foe in the Miami Heat.

Fresh off clinching, in what is now more than 27 franchises, his 10th NBA Finals berth, LeBron James and the Western Conference champion Los Angeles Lakers await the Miami Heat to decide the 2020 NBA title in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. Miami is the last five-or-below seed to make the NBA Finals since the Knicks reached that pinnacle in 1999.

Los Angeles has been dealt a slew of notable matchups thus far, each of which presented their own stylistic challenges. They began with the fully healthy, Dame-led Blazers — followed by the micro-ball Rockets and then the uniquely challenging Denver Nuggets, winning all three rounds in five games.

The Nuggets ruined the highly anticipated LA showdown by defeating the Clippers in seven games behind the absurd play of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

On the other side stands Miami, who led by Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and perhaps the best coach in basketball, Erik Spoelstra, have put together an incredible playoff run so far. They eliminated the Pacers, the top-seeded Bucks and the littered with talent Boston Celtics to get to this point.

If the 2020 Playoffs has taught us anything, it’s that making schematic adjustments wins and loses games. Brad Stevens and Nick Nurse put a professional chess match on display in the second round. Frank Vogel and Spoelstra have done the exact same. Playing chess is required in the NBA Playoffs, and it’s what both finalists will have to continue to do.

How the Miami Heat present issues for Los Angeles and how Miami reduces the margin of error:

The current iteration of the Miami Heat is an offense that features tons of scoring versatility. There’s Goran Dragić, who can get downhill and finish around the rim but can also burn defenders playing “under,” or drop coverage, on his jumper.

Jimmy Butler, a poised decision-maker who ranked 2nd during the regular season in FTA and has seemingly found a unique way to be your unconventional “best player on a Finals team.”

Now sprinkle in Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, with the former having finished the regular season in the 97th, (97th!!) percentile on dribble handoffs (1.38 PPP, 183 possessions), and the latter having recently become the 2nd youngest guy ever to score 35+ in a playoff game. (Data per NBA.com)

Miami’s Swiss Army Knife

What the Lakers have to prep most for though, is Miami’s multifaceted all-star big Bam Adebayo, who gives reminiscence of a more powerful, taller Draymond Green. None of it happens without the 14th pick in the 2017 draft.

Offensively, Bam’s quick-twitch and deliberateness as a “hand-offer” and rim runner are fundamental in opening up the floodgates for the Heat’s offense. Bam’s archetype is similar to the GSW’s superstar role player in that Draymond’s famous two-man game with Stephen Curry opened the floodgates for the Warriors, just Bam with Goran in replacement.

The emergence of Bam’s passing and his speed when slipping pick-and-roll trap coverage truly gives Miami the edge to untie their opponent’s defensive string.

Exhibit A (0:10-0:20):

Exhibit B (0:08-0:16):

Both possessions feature Bam’s heightened IQ and fundamentals in situational basketball. He creates the perfect angle for his guards to brush off his screens and then dives to the rim with utmost speed.

Plays like this are why it’s smart to place shooters in the corners, that way if you have a big with tons of rolling gravity or “vertical gravity,” it collapses the defense and creates open looks.

Trapping out high unlocks Bam, too.

Exhibit C (6:55-7:03):

This sequence felt very peak Warriors. While it doesn’t make much sense the Steph-level treatment Jimmy receives here, the speed in which Bam executes the “tap and go” or the “slip” is what moves the needle. L.A’s synchronicity on defense will need to be high to mitigate this since Miami’s offense is run with extreme accuracy.

In addition to his rim running, Adebayo’s dribble hand-offs are tight – and equally as important – he sets great screens. A large benefactor of Tyler Herro’s 37 point effort in game five – or any explosive guard’s performance for that matter – was/is Bam’s ability to provide Herro more opportunistic scoring via his screens and hand-offs, so opposed to Herro playing stationary, he’s operating on the move.

That way, whenever he receives the handoff, he’s already a half step ahead and in prime position to score, thus parsing the reasons why Bam unlocking everything are so important to recognize.

Exhibit D (0:08-1:04):

In each of Herro’s actions, Bam is involved as the screener, nudging Tyler in a more prime position to get off the highest quality shot tailored to his skill set.

Per Basketball-Reference, Bam ranked 22nd in the entire league in total assists and joined Giannis as the only PF or C to crack the top 35. Since he’s Miami’s best passer, he’s generally positioned as a post passer when he’s not a screener (again, similar to Draymond) to maximize Miami’s “split screens.”

If you aren’t familiar, a split-screen features two offensive players coming together, then suddenly darting in different directions. It’s a precise screening concept in basketball that’s designed to cause miscommunication for the defense and create passing angles for the offense. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are the poster-children of the split-screen.

Passing windows in professional basketball do not last long, so having a distributing threat like Bam scope the defense unlocks a ton of off-ball advantages, despite Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson not being Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.

The art of cutting in professional basketball has always been fascinating to me. The podcast “Nerder She Wrote,” featuring The Athletic NBA Analysts Seth Partnow & Dave DuFour and former Clippers/Spurs Video Coordinator Mo Dakhil, reiterated the hidden value behind effective cutting in the NBA.

Using Bam as a distributor is instrumental to enhanced shot creation for players like Goran, Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson. In other words, even if the cutter “doesn’t receive the pass,” he still occupies space, and the defender, which in turn opens up a weakside rotation or a corner three.

Nikola Jokic garners buzz as the best passing big in NBA history for a team that finished in the 96th percentile (2 out of 30) on cuts during the regular season (1.37 PPP) not only because his creativity is unrivaled, but because he’s creating one of the two easiest shots in the sport for his team – rim shots. Cutting is important, valuable and prospering in Miami.

In the regular season, Miami ranked in the 65th percentile in cuts via PPP (1.31), which is pretty good, but were number one in cutting frequency, large in part thanks to Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, who are excellent at creating rim pressure by diving and cutting with purpose. .

Quite similar to what the Lakers encountered in the Conference Finals versus Denver, the Miami Heat bring the element of cutting to the table. Miami’s “Jokic” is Bam Adebayo.

Exhibit E (3:20-3:25):

Miami frequently will run that “SLOB” action in order to get Jimmy Butler matched up with a smaller guard in the post. Bam Adebayo’s positioning up high for the entry pass is crucial to the entire play’s development. Laker guards like Rondo and Caruso should aim to sniff it out, either via fronting or preemptively switching when they’re guarding Butler.

Prepping for L.A’s offense and Miami’s zone defense

Miami will need to execute even better on defense than offense in this series, however. Most prominently, they need to emphasize two things, with the first being limiting LeBron’s drives and the second being protecting the Duncans and Tylers of the world from being preyed on by James.

LeBron loves to switch hunt, as he and Kyrie famously did to Steph Curry in the 16 Finals. He does this by running inverted ball screens featuring another guard as the screener. This way, he has a strength edge on a drive, can audible into a post, or can fire off a ‘pass to the “popper,” which is the guard screener.

If this is exploited, Spoelstra will either have to sub a star shooters out or go zone, which I will dive into in a moment.

The matchup between the Heat and Lakers looks favorable to Los Angeles on paper, and notably so since they’ll have the outright two best players on the court every night. However, basketball isn’t won on paper and after all, is a game predicated on matchups

Will we see Miami go zone in the Finals?

Probably. The Lakers, albeit only seeing it seldom, didn’t fare that well against it in the regular season, but their PPP is slightly skewed due to an outlier quarter in one of the matchups – in which following the quarter they solved the zone quite well.

Still, just 2.2% of Laker possessions were against zone in the regular season. But, the Lakers very well may see Miami’s zone as an inhibitor to LeBron’s penetration.

The Lakers should see advantages to crack the zone though if they play it right. The optimal way to enforce that is with the use of Anthony Davis at the nail. If he’s flashing effectively, he’ll have opportunistic scoring chances in the mid-range area.

He’s also improved as a passer to the point where he can attack the zone downhill, draw Bam, and trigger the dunker’s spot lob with Dwight or McGee. These actions open up offensive rebounding opportunities as well, a category LA has a healthy advantage in.

Through 15 playoff games, here are some Davis shooting splits from pbpstats.com:

• At rim: 78%
• Short mid-range: 51%
• Long mid-range: 50%

The Lakers top scorer being scorching hot in those areas heading into a Finals where the opposing defense may play zone is not a great recipe. This dilemma is compounded by LeBron James’s court vision and ability to play puppet with various defensive coverages.

If they’re not in zone, their best bet is to always go under and even play drop coverage on LeBron James. Per Synergy, LeBron only has a 23% conversion rate on pull-up jumpers in pick-and-roll scenarios in the playoffs.

Allowing that shooting window is a positive for Miami, unless of course perhaps the best player ever starts hitting them. James is the Lakers’ only true primary creator in pick-and-roll, so if Miami can neutralize it somewhat, it will bode well.

Per Synergy, Miami deployed zone defense an NBA high 11.6% of the time in the regular season, didn’t really resort to it in the first two rounds, then amped it up versus Boston.

This is a tactic that helps mitigate some of the switch hunting, in this case, directed at Duncan and Tyler, that LeBron will predictably exploit, but simultaneously may get exposed by the Lakers size and LeBron’s ability to generate corner triples, and punish rotations himself. However, I think Miami rolls the dice with that.

They would prefer LeBron and the Lakers sort through a cluttered zone and take a lot of threes than attack the rim and create higher quality threes. 38% of Laker FGA come at the rim, a significant mark. Conversely enough, Miami prides itself on limiting rim shots, so that will be a fascinating battle to monitor.

The transition game and defending the three:

Playoff ranks for transition play type: Offense

• LAL – 87th percentile (1.16 PPP), 18.5% frequency.
• MIA – 50th percentile (1.07 PPP), 12% frequency.

Playoff ranks for transition play type: Defense

• LAL – 75th percentile (1.00 PPP), 14.9% frequency.
• MIA – 12th percentile (1.18 PPP), 15% frequency.

The Lakers seek out transition opportunities with their lengthy defense. It’s cliche, but not taking care of the ball gets you beat, especially in a series like this. Turnovers aren’t just wasted possessions for Team A, they are extra possessions for Team B.

The Lakers will of course need to prioritize their ball security against the POA (point of attack) defenders of Miami, just as Miami will have to prevent turnovers against the Carusos, Rondos and Caldwell-Popes of the world.

You can’t surrender fast break chances to James and Davis, nor to Miami’s shooting. 34% of all Miami FGA this postseason have been above the break threes, which are shots particularly generated off of turnovers in transition.

The corner three is probably the most efficient shot outside of rim shots in the game. 10% of Miami FGA are corner threes, converting on 34%. For L.A, those numbers are 14% and 40%, a clear uptick. LeBron James might be the best player in the world at generating corner threes.

Certain LA three-point shooters aren’t terrific by any means so Miami can certainly scheme around helping off a few certain guys during Davis entries or LeBron drives, despite those numbers.

Miami should give Rondo a green light and Caruso a slightly less green one. Kyle Kuzma presents a bigger threat in the corners than from anywhere else, and I think Miami should be giving Morris a semi-green light while Danny Green should warrant hard closeouts.

On the flip side, forcing Duncan Robinson off the line needs to be high on the priority list. For Herro though, 48.9% of his FGM in the playoffs have been unassisted, so he’s upped his self-creation from just 39% in the regular season.

I still think Miami is set up best making Herro create on the drive, however. It is objectively better than their alternative. Overall, Miami currently ranks in the 87th percentile (1.17 PPP) on spot-up jumpers in the playoffs, while LA ranks in the 31st (1.04 PPP).

Game ones are historically feel-out games for LeBron-led teams. Miami’s best shot to win their first game in the series may come on Wednesday. For my prediction, I would say Lakers in six to seal LeBron’s fourth title, Anthony’s first and the Lakers’ seventeenth. It appears the Lakers have the personnel advantage to make the proper adjustments better suited than Miami.

With that, this Heat team is impossible not to root for. The coach started out as a video coordinator and now orchestrates them with military precision. Jimmy and Bam are the classic “unconventional superstars on a Finals team,” and their player development with Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro has been phenomenal. This series should be exciting.