History indicates that the Los Angeles Lakers will win the title after Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The Los Angeles Lakers throttled the Miami Heat in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. After starting the game in a 13-point rut, the Lakers absolutely outplayed the Heat for the rest of the game, winning by a final margin of 116-97.
This is not what many people expected. The Lakers (of course) have been the subject of a plethora of criticism and the Miami Heat have been that gritty, cinderella story team.
The Heat are dealing with injuries, which is unfortunate. Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo are listed as doubtful for Game 2 and Jimmy Butler tweaked his ankle (but returned) in Game 1. Even with the unfortunate injuries, the Lakers proved they are the better team and history proves that the team will now win the finals.
Here are three historical numbers that provide us some context as to why we are so confident in the Lakers winning it all after Game 1:
1. 1 seeds are 10-4 all-time vs. 4+ seeds in Games 5-7 of the NBA Finals
The Los Angeles Lakers are the first seed in the Western Conference, the Miami Heat are the fifth seed. This kind of matchup does not happen, but when it does, history favors the Lakers.
The 1994-95 Houston Rockets were the sixth seed in the Western Conference and swept the first-seeded Orlando Magic. However, when the series reaches five games, history errs in favor of the Lakers.
Most of the losses to the lower seeds came early in basketball history, though. Over the last 40 years, first-seeded teams are 8-1 in these matchups, with the only loss being the Lakers to the Boston Celtics in 2010 (they obviously still won the series).
Even better — there have been three Games 5-7 between a first seed and fifth seed all-time (most of the other games were fourth seeds). The first seeds are 3-0 in those games.
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The Lakers are guaranteed to go to Game 5 at worst and history indicates that they will win those decided games if they are needed.