Los Angeles Lakers: Only Jimmy Butler can keep the Miami Heat afloat in Game 2

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to move the NBA Finals to 2-0 over the Miami Heat.

Welcome to the special debut of Kevin’s Key. Where we determine the key player to the Los Angeles Lakers locking up their opponent.

Check out my previous keys to the NBA Finals!

• Game 1: Kevin’s Key to Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

AD screamed it’s over and it was all done!
Miami got beat so bad they dusted off Kendrick Nunn!   
No Bam! Miami’s chances are zero!
Miami needs Game 4’s Tyler Herro!

Eminem did not beat Papa Doc this badly in Eight Mile’s final rap battle. The Miami Heat froze up like Papa Doc once the Los Angeles Lakers got it going. To make it worse, Miami suffered injuries to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic, both listed as doubtful for Game 2.

Bam is irreplaceable. Dragic is almost irreplaceable. Nobody on Miami can fill Bam’s role. Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro can at least try to imitate Dragic. Nunn started each game before Dragic took his spot in the playoffs. His 18 points, while impressive given he only played 20 minutes, meant little to the outcome.

Nunn must have the same kind of performance in a more meaningful way. If he steps up, it would be yet another high in a rollercoaster of a playing career. Space Mountain does not have as many twists and turns as Nunn’s journey.

If not Nunn, Tyler Herro will have to replicate Dragic’s production. Herro scored 37 points in one playoff game. He is legit. Herro is still a shooting guard, not a traditional point guard like Dragic or Nunn. Herro as a de-facto point guard still works because Miami’s offense does not necessarily require a traditional point guard.

As a rule of thumb, the more ball and player movement in an offense, the less a ball-dominant point guard is needed to run the offense. Miami’s offense has more movement than any other team (going by the eye test). They move chaotically even on inbounds plays to corner shooters.

Apparently banks are still open in the bubble.

Miami’s offense is run through Bam at the high post (think the Sacramento Kings’ offense in their heyday with Chris Webber and Vlade Divac in the early 2000s). Miami’s array of handoffs and timely cutting comes mainly from Bam facilitating from the elbow.

It is easy to say Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro are x-factors in tonight’s game. Even if they do make up for Dragic’s absence, the offense is not the problem.

Defense wins championships.

Therefore, Jimmy Butler is tonight’s key. Here’s why.

Jimmy Butler must outplay LeBron James for Miami to stand a chance

It can be misconstrued as a lazy narrative to suggest Jimmy Butler needs to outplay LeBron James for Miami to have a chance. He has to though. Again, offense was not the problem. Jimmy Butler scored 23 points on 8-13 shooting (2-4 from three-point range) plus 5 assists in Game 1. His performance was wonderfully efficient.

Taking only 13 shots, as the team’s best player, is a bit concerning. It is just a byproduct just how Miami’s offense works. Their ball movement and endless screening/cutting work against high-volume scorers sometimes. Six players have averaged double figures in these playoffs, per Basketball-Reference.

Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal are not walking through that (virtual) door. Butler has to be the guy. He is at his best when he averages around 25 points and 5 assists per game. With Dragic likely out, he has to facilitate more. He also has to score more. And maintain that same level of efficiency from Game 1.

Tough task. He has to average at least 30 points and 7 assists for Miami to keep up. He also has to guard LeBron James. He has the experience guarding LeBron dating back to his time as a member of the Chicago Bulls.

This experience did not translate in Game 1. LeBron put him in the spin cycle.

That’s not it, Jimmy.

He will have to make a much stronger effort to stay in front of him. He has to jam LeBron off the dribble as soon as the switch is called. Giving LeBron a head of steam off-ball screens is a basic no-no on any team’s scouting report.

That defensive faux pas notwithstanding, Butler’s still the best option. Miami’s other options are not as good as advertised. Jae Crowder is too busy guarding Anthony Davis. Crowder was otherwise played off the court as the game progressed when he tried to guard LeBron in vein.

Andre Iguodala guarded LeBron when his Golden State Warriors played LeBron’s Cleveland Cavaliers in their NBA Finals quartet. Miami planned to give Iggy the same role until LeBron trucked him every single time down the court.

At least Iggy still has his ups.

I have love for Iggy. He still looks noticeably older, thinner, and slower. He is 36. At some point, father time wins out. Not everyone can be a cyborg like LeBron. He can only guard LeBron in limited stretches while Butler is resting.

RELATED: Lakers: LeBron James vs Andre Iguodala – The challenge of the ancients

And Butler cannot rest much, if at all. Normally, Miami’s change-of-pace zone defense alleviates Butler’s defensive burden. After the Lakers shot over 50% from three-point range in the first half, I would be shocked if Miami plays zone again. Man-to-man is clearly their best defense.

Man-to-man will also help on the boards. Defensive rebounding suffers while playing zone. The Lakers bludgeoned Miami on the boards 54-36 (9-5 on the offensive glass). LeBron had 13 of those rebounds. Butler has to not only play great on-ball defense, but he also has to box out a man who has about two inches and at least 20 pounds on him.

My analysis for tonight is simple: the Los Angeles Lakers are just too big. Or are they? Pat Riley could not have written a better storybook ending for a series comeback. Can Jimmy Butler inspire each teammate to channel his Winner Within to lead the Miami Heat to victory?

On to Game 2!