Los Angeles Lakers: Predicting Rob Pelinka’s next moves

Rob Pelinka and the Los Angeles Lakers are not close to being done this offseason.

Right out of the gate, Los Angeles Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka made the first big move of the NBA offseason, trading Danny Green and the #28 pick in the draft for point guard Dennis Schroder.

Greg Anthony of NBA TV called Schroder probably “one of the 10 best point guards” in the league. He averaged 19 points and 4 assists this past season and was runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year. He also shot a career-best 38.5% from behind the three-point line, and just as impressively played the best defense of his career, putting his quickness and long arms to good use.

The acquisition of Schroder and departure of Green impacts the team in several ways:

1) The Lakers probably no longer have the interest nor the assets to trade for DeMar DeRozan, Victor Oladipo, Derrick Rose or Zach LaVine, all of whom were purportedly possible trade targets

2) The team seems to believe that they will not be able to re-sign Rajon Rondo, who declined his player option to become a free agent. Atlanta, which has the most cap money in the league, wants to sign Rondo to mentor their young point guard, Trae Young. The Clippers are interested too.

3) The Lakers will need to replace Green, perhaps their best perimeter defender, probably through free agency

So what is Pelinka most likely to do now? When he was first hired, it was said he was a master at understanding and managing the salary cap. His challenge is to make the right moves that upgrade the roster beyond this past year’s championship squad.

Let’s look at the existing roster so far. Six players are currently signed: Schroder (once the trade is finalized), Alex Caruso, Quinn Cook, Talen Horton-Tucker, LeBron James and Kyle Kuzma.

Anthony Davis has declined his option but almost certainly will re-sign with the team. It should just be a matter of how long a contract he wants. Count on him returning to the purple and gold.

Also, as of this writing, neither Avery Bradley nor JaVale McGee has made official decisions about their player options. It’s anticipated that Bradley will decline his option but McGee will exercise his.

That means the Lakers likely start with 7-8 players on the roster: Schroder, Caruso, THT and Cook in the backcourt and James, Davis, Kuzma and probably McGee upfront. LeBron will undoubtedly continue to log minutes offensively at point guard. Whether Schroder starts or comes off the bench will be Coach Frank Vogel’s call.

Pelinka will need to fill the roster in the following spots:

Small Forward: who will replace the 6-6 Green as a three-point threat and primary defender, particularly against the opposing taller players? The 3-and-D role could fall to 6-5 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope if he is re-signed. KCP declined his player option but the Lakers have his “Bird rights”, allowing them to go over the cap to sign him.

The free agent best qualified to fill Green’s role is Jerami Grant, who is a tremendous defender and able three-point shooter (39% the past two seasons). But Grant rejected his $9.3 million option with the Nuggets and is probably out of the Lakers’ reach salary-wise. A trade for him is an outside possibility (perhaps a sign-and-trade for KCP) but acquiring Grant is probably just a pipe dream.

A more realistic possibility is Justin Holiday, the 6-6 brother of point guard Jrue, who was just traded to Milwaukee. Justin is a first-rate defender who shot 40% from beyond the arc this past season with Indiana, where he earned $4.8 million.

A favored candidate among fans is 6-10 Danilo Gallinari, a 38% career three-point shooter and excellent offensive player. After earning over $130 million in his career, he is reportedly willing to take a smaller contract to play for a contender.

The problem is Gallinari’s defense, or more precisely his total lack of defense. His metrics aren’t bad, but he fails any reasonable eye test. It remains to be seen if Pelinka is willing to sacrifice defense for offense.

Power Forward/Center: two keys to Lakers’ success this past season were their versatility and their defense at the rim. But Dwight Howard, Markieff Morris and possibly McGee are all free agents, so Pelinka has some work to do.

It has been reported that Howard expects to return to the Lakers, but he will also likely be recruited by other teams. Morris showed his worth in the playoffs but what he wants has not been made public.

The Lakers will likely take a close look at 7-0 Serge Ibaka, who just had one of his best seasons with Toronto and is strong on both sides of the court. They will face stiff competition from the Raptors and Nets, among other teams.

Another possibility could be 6-10 Nerlens Noel, who wouldn’t provide much offense but is a good shot blocker and rebounder (1.5 blocks and 5 boards in just 18 minutes a game). Although he is not a strong one-on-one post defender, he provides outstanding off-the-ball D and excels at switching onto smaller players in the pick and roll.

Two veterans may also be considered. Paul Millsap has always played bigger than his 6-7, is a fine defender and still has some good offensive skills, including a three-point shot (43.5% this past season). Well-traveled Jeff Green could be a decent signing as well. The 6-8 veteran is a serviceable option and has also become a decent three-point threat.

Many Lakers fans are hoping for the return of DeMarcus Cousins, who reportedly has not sufficiently recovered from injuries to be ready for the start of the season. His opportunity to play with LeBron and AD was ruined last year by a torn Achilles. The Lakers might hold a roster spot open in case Boogie can be added later in the season.

Backcourt– the 6-3 Bradley was playing extremely well before the pandemic struck. He skipped the Orlando bubble, including the postseason, for family reasons, but he was an integral part of the team’s success beforehand. His in-your-face defense helped set the tone, and over his final 16 games, he shot 46.6% from beyond the arc.

The Lakers would like to re-sign him, but other teams will bid for him too.

The Lakers are also reported to have interest in 6-4 veteran Wes Matthews, who epitomizes the 3-and-D player. At age 34 he may have slowed down a bit, but he is still a tough-nosed defender who never backs down. He shot 36% beyond the arc this past season and 38% for his career.

Let’s assume that Bradley opts out and McGee opts in. The Lakers would have 8 spots filled with 6-7 still to go. An additional trade remains a possibility, of course, and the most likely Lakers to depart would be Kuzma, McGee and/or Cook. But if Pelinka chooses to fill out the team solely through free agency, the best guess is that the Lakers roster will look something like this:

Guards: Schroder, Caruso, Bradley, Matthews, THT and Cook

Forwards: LeBron, AD, Kuzma, KCP or Holiday, Morris or Millsap and Jared Dudley (who is a good end-of-the-bench option and a great teammate and locker room presence)

Centers: McGee and either Howard or Noel

That’s 14 players, which gives the Lakers a spot to add Cousins or someone else later in the season. It should put the team in a good position to defend its title.