At the tender age of 20, the man affectionately known as THT has been a vital component of the Los Angeles Lakers‘ rotation this season. Although currently playing only just under 17 minutes per game, Talen Horton Tucker’s combination of length, athleticism, and defensive ability make him a coveted target for rival teams.
On a recent episode of his podcast, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst acknowledged THT’s desirability stating, “People think that he could the Tyler Johnson poison-pill contract.”
So, what is a poison-pill contract?
Usually, a “poison-pill contract” is when a team extends a player before the end of his rookie deal, only to trade him before the extension kicks in. However, in Talen Horton-Tucker’s case, any potential offers he receives are limited by something known as the “Gilbert Arenas provision.”
As per Hoops Rumors:
"“The Arenas provision limits the first-year salary that rival suitors can offer restricted free agents who have only been in the league for one or two years. The starting salary for an offer sheet can’t exceed the amount of the non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, which allows the player’s original team to use either the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception to match it.”"
So, what does this mean for the Los Angeles Lakers?
Essentially, for restricted free-agents with less than three years of NBA experience, rival teams will offer heavily backloaded contracts to a player as means of circumventing these rules. The most famous example of this is Tyler Johnson, who received a four-year, 50 million dollar contract from the Brooklyn Nets in 2016.
As per Yahoo Sports:
"To sign Horton-Tucker to this offer sheet, a team must have enough 2021 cap space to fit the contract’s average salary. If the offer sheet goes unmatched, Horton-Tucker would count against the cap at his average salary each season of the deal. If the Lakers match, they could theoretically decide whether to count Horton-Tucker against the cap at his actual salary each season or his average salary all four seasons. However, only teams under the cap when matching can use average salaries. The Lakers will almost certainly be above the cap."
In other words, a poison-pill contract is a smart way for rivals to force the Los Angeles Lakers, who will likely be above the cap, into a tough spot.
Talen Horton-Tucker has tremendous upside due to his athleticism and youth, so there’s every chance that a team will pay for his future production. Any poison-pill offer to THT will likely exceed Tyler Johnson’s 2016 contract in value. As per ESPN, the structure of Johnson’s poison-pill contract was:
- Year 1: $5.6 million
- Year 2: $5.9 million
- Year 3: $18.9 million
- Year 4: $19.6 million
Don’t be surprised if the average annual value of THT’s poison-pill contract is around the $15 million per year mark, with the final two years being well north of $20 million per year.
Although he’s likely to be a target of several teams, there are three that stand out as strong candidates to offer THT a poison-pill contract this offseason.
1. Detroit Pistons
Salary by year:
- 2021-22: $107,798,995
- 2022-23: $51,896,600
- 2023-24: $20,104,318
- 2024-25: $2,866,667
Detroit is one of the best candidates from a basketball standpoint to offer Talen Horton-Tucker a poison-pill contract. Arguably the worst roster in the league, the Pistons desperately desire young talent.
They aren’t entirely bereft of talent. Jerami Grant has emerged as a potential superstar, and they have other young building blocks like Killian Hayes (19), Saddiq Bey (21), and Isaiah Stewart (19). However, they need young two-way players, and Talen Horton-Tucker fits the bill.
To make a poison-pill contract work, Detroit most likely needs to shed some salary. This season, they are seven million dollars over the salary cap of approximately $109 million. Next season, they have $107 million on the books, which wouldn’t leave enough money to sign Talen Horton-Tucker to a poison-pill contract.
However, let’s assume that the salary cap experiences a modest increase (it’s currently projected at $112 million as per HoopsRumors), and the Pistons find a way to shed the last year of Rodney McGruder’s contract ($5.3 million), leaving $10 million in cap space for the upcoming season.
From there, Detroit would need to shed an additional $5 million of salary to fit THT’s hypothetical $15 million per year under the 2021-22 salary cap.
For a team with the unenviable distinction of the worst contract in the NBA (Blake Griffin), the Pistons cap situation is surprisingly manageable. They’re a couple of minor moves away from being in a position to offer Talen Horton-Tucker a poison-pill contract.
2. New York Knicks
Salary by year:
- 2021-22: $54,935,375
- 2022-23: $22,057,218
- 2023-24: $10,974,560
- 2024-25: $0
Despite a history of incompetence, the New York Knicks are quietly in a great position. The only big contract they have on the books for next season is Julius Randle’s $19.8 million, which he’s worth based on his performance this season.
Surrounding Randle is a bunch of young talent on cheap contracts, such as Mitch Robinson ($1.8 million), Immanuel Quickley ($2.2 million), RJ Barrett ($8.6 million), and Obi Toppin ($5.1 million).
However, aside from Austin Rivers, there won’t be a shooting guard under contract for the Knicks next season (Barrett is currently listed as a small forward on the Knicks depth chart). A starting spot is thus available for Talen Horton-Tucker to slot into next season.
At 21 years of age in 2021-22, he’ll fit perfectly with the Knicks’ young core. With minimal long-term salary commitments, the front-office has the salary cap flexibility to take a $15 million per year hit without shedding any contracts.
With a move to New York City, THT would be in the one market bigger than Los Angeles. New York City’s bright lights can be overwhelming for some players, not just because of the market size but also because New York’s basketball fans are success deprived.
However, anyone who is part of the next Knicks championship will become a legend, so a move to The Big Apple is Talen Horton Tucker’s best chance to build a brand and create a lasting legacy.
3. Chicago Bulls
Salary by year:
- 2021-22: $72,671,867
- 2022-23: $17,120,036
- 2023-24: $9,835,881
- 2024-25: $0
Like New York, Chicago is a young team in a large market with a strong salary cap. With $72.6 million on the books next season and only one guaranteed contract beyond that, the Bulls are well-poised to offer Talen Horton-Tucker a poison-pill contract if they so desire.
One factor in Chicago’s favor over potential rival suitors is that THT is a Chicago native, so they’re able to pitch the “hometown hero” narrative as well as a competitive contract.
From a basketball standpoint, it appears that Chicago’s backcourt is very crowded. Zach LaVine, the current starting shooting guard, is playing at an All-NBA level this season, averaging 28.1 points per game on .519/.430/.863 shooting splits.
However, LaVine has been part of several trade rumors, including many linking him to the Los Angeles Lakers. If the whispers prove to be accurate and Chicago trade LaVine, there will be an opening at the starting shooting guard position.
THT’s defensive acumen is an excellent fit on-court next to the offensively talented but defensively challenged Coby White. Coupled with a talented young front-court consisting of Patrick Williams, Lauri Markkanen, and Wendell Carter Jr, plus any assets brought in from the LaVine trade, it’s easy to see Chicago becoming an Eastern Conference force.
Don’t be mistaken; it’s almost certainly the front office’s preference to re-sign Talen Horton-Tucker to a long-term contract. However, if a team decides that he’s worth a poison-pill deal, the Los Angeles Lakers don’t have any salary-cap space and will struggle to match an offer.
Which rival teams do you think are most likely to offer THT a poison-pill contract? Please leave your thoughts in the comments below.