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Los Angeles Lakers: Betting picks in Finals rematch vs. Miami Heat

By Jason Reed

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 17: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball up court against the Golden State Warriors during the first half of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on February 17, 2021 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 17: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball up court against the Golden State Warriors during the first half of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on February 17, 2021 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) /
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After a loss in a potential NBA Finals preview against the Brooklyn Nets, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat in a 2020 NBA Finals rematch.

Both teams are in a much different position than they were last October. The Lakers welcomed several new faces to town, making the team better in the process, albeit are without Anthony Davis for this game.

The Heat lost minor pieces but have not put it all together thus far this season. After the incredible run in the Orlando bubble, the Heat are 12-17 this season.

Dennis Schroder is also missing the game as part of the league’s health and safety protocols. Kyle Kuzma and Markieff Morris are on the injury report but are probable.

The Heat are missing Meyers Leonard — who is out for the season — Avery Bradley — who is out with a calf strain — and Goran Dragic — who is out with an ankle injury.

As part of the Lake Show Life Podcast, I have been picking against both the spread and the point total in Lakers games this season. I am 28-26 on the season after going 1-1 against the Brooklyn Nets.

According to the Bet MGM odds on the Action Network, the Lakers are four-point favorites and the point total is set at 208.5

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat betting picks:

  • Lakers -4, over 208.5 (Final score: Lakers 109, Heat 103)

The Lakers should absolutely cover four points as the home team against a banged-up Heat team that is struggling this season. I would be legitimately shocked if the Lakers did not cover.

Of course, the biggest potential threat is the three-point shooting of Miami getting hot. The Lakers, partially from bad luck, have gotten torched by teams from beyond the arc before. Just look at the Brooklyn loss.

However, I think the Lakers’ perimeter defense is better than the percentages would suggest as the Nets hit a lot of tough threes in that game. Miami will hit enough shots to keep them in the game, not to beat the Lakers.

109 points may seem high with no Davis or Schroder but the Heat are not the greatest defensive team. The Lakers can attack Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson with no problem in this one.

On paper, this game favors the Los Angeles Lakers but paper does not hold any weight in determining the outcome. The Heat could show up to play with a vengeance as the Lakers naturally always have a target on their back as a great team.

Next. Potential 3-point targets to trade for. dark

It should be fun.

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