Los Angeles Lakers: Betting picks in first matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

The Los Angeles Lakers are squaring off against the Phoenix Suns for the first time in the regular season on Tuesday night. The two teams are in a similar position record-wise, with the Lakers owning a 24-11 record while the Suns are 22-11.

The Lakers are currently second in the Western Conference but a loss to the Suns could move them all the way down to fourth. The top of the West is extremely crowded as is with the Utah Jazz being the only team with real separation.

The order of the standings does not really matter as we are not even at the All-Star Break but this could serve as an important statement win for both teams. The Lakers can prove with a third straight win that they are still a threat without Anthony Davis while the Suns can prove that they should not be taken lightly.

As part of today’s Lake Show Life Podcast, I picked both against the spread and the point total for tonight’s showdown. At the time of recording, according to the Bet MGM odds on the Action Network, the Lakers are 1.5-point favorites with a point total of 213.5. They have since moved to only one-point favorites.

I’ve missed the last two games as I took a socially distanced three-day weekend, so my last picks were against the Utah Jazz and I have a season record of 29-29.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns betting picks:

  • Phoenix Suns +1.5, under 213.5 (Final score: Suns 106, Lakers 102)

I hate picking against the Los Angeles Lakers but it is my duty to be as objective as possible to our loyal Lake Show Life readers and I simply do not see the Lakers winning this game.

First, I put the numbers into my NBA betting model (something I have not done in a few weeks, which is probably why I went from red-hot to ice-cold) and it spit out the Lakers winning by three (the opening line of the game).

However, the only reason the Lakers were predicted to win by three was the advantage they had at home. Without my road/home numbers, the two teams are projected to have the exact same score — which reflects the super close betting line.

There are two reasons why I picked the Suns. First is simply the ideology that if it is going to be a close game you might as well pick the team that is getting points. Second is the impact of Dennis Schroder.

The Lakers were not the same without Schroder and it was clear in the four games that he was out that his impact on this offense is tremendous. He is playing in this game, so what gives?

Chris Paul is going to be the primary defender on Dennis Schroder. While he is not prime CP3, he is still a well-above-average defensive player with an insane basketball IQ. He is going to do everything in his power to slow down Schroder, and as a result, the Lakers’ offense will slow down.

The game could really go either way and I do think it is going to come down to the Lakers being down by two and having a shot to win or tie the game. I picked a four-point differential to represent the Lakers missing that shot and the Suns going down and making two free-throws.

The spread is a coin flip, the part of the bet that I really love is the under. It is a really low point total, but for a reason. The under feels as close to a lock as it can be.