In March this year, Los Angeles Lakers point guard Dennis Schroder rejected a 4-year, $84 million contract extension from the team.
While Schroder isn’t the first player to bet on himself in free agency, the decision to reject the Lakers’ generous offer is a miscalculation in the eyes of sports media.
Using Basketball Reference’s 2020-21 NBA Player Contracts, Schroder’s rejected contract extension is a similar average annual value to the contracts of Fred VanVleet, Malcolm Brogdon, Victor Oladipo, and Zach LaVine. Even the most diehard Lakers’ fans would tell you that except for the injury-prone Oladipo, everyone else mentioned above is playing at a far higher level than Schroder.
So, what does Dennis Schroder need to do on the Los Angeles Lakers to be worth more than $84 million?
His recent play has been trending in the right direction. As of the time of writing, over his last six games, Schroder has averaged 18.3 PPG and 9.2 APG on 50% shooting from the field. However, he lacks the game-to-game consistency exhibited by his peers who were listed above.
This article will discuss three areas in which Dennis Schroder needs to improve to be worth the money he’ll likely ask for as a free agent this offseason.
1. Improved outside shooting
When news of Dennis Schroder’s trade to the Los Angeles Lakers went public, one thing that had fans very excited was his breakout outside shooting performance for the Oklahoma City Thunder the season prior.
In a sixth-man role for the Thunder, Schroder made 38.5% of his threes on five attempts per game. With outside shooting the biggest weakness of last season’s championship team, fans were excited that the trade for Schroder would go a long way towards addressing that weakness.
Unfortunately, Schroder’s three-point shooting has regressed to 34.4%, not far off his career 33.8% mark.
One thing that Malcolm Brogdon (39.1%), Fred VanVleet (36.7%), and Zach LaVine (41.6%) have in common that Schroder does not is elite outside shooting (or, in VanVleet’s case, a history of elite outside shooting).
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In particular, there’s an expectation that a point guard who commands north of $21 million a year is somewhat adept at creating an outside shot off the dribble.
However, Schroder’s 20.5% mark on pull-up threes is in the 20th percentile of all NBA players. In comparison, the three guards mentioned above all rank in the 70th percentile or better for pull-up threes and are much more adept at generating points in isolation situations.
Schroder somewhat makes up for this by consistently finishing reasonably well at the rim (78th percentile for Overall Finishing Talent, as per Bball Index). However, that mark pales compared to his contemporaries, such as Brogdon (91st percentile) and LaVine (98th percentile). On the whole, Schroder’s rim-finishing isn’t good enough to compensate for his subpar outside shooting.
2. Improved playmaking
One area in which Dennis Schroder has made great strides during this season is his playmaking. Since LeBron James‘ injury, Schroder’s assists have skyrocketed from 4.7 per game to 7.9 per game, including recently putting together a stretch of three consecutive games with double-digit assists.
When LeBron is available, Schroder’s role is to settle in as a secondary playmaker, so the low assist numbers aren’t an issue per se. Furthermore, his numbers as the team’s primary playmaker are encouraging to teams who’ll be in discussions with Schroder this offseason.
However, the big question that both rival teams and the Lakers will be asking is whether this is a flash-in-the-pan. After all, the only two seasons in his career where he averaged more than six assists per game were when he played for the Atlanta Hawks.
While it’s unfortunately not possible to delve into Schroder’s advanced passing metrics this season with and without LeBron, the season-long numbers paint a moderately positive picture of his playmaking acumen.
In particular, Schroder excels at high-value assist creation per 75 possessions (93rd percentile), box creation (92nd percentile), an estimate of open shots carved out for teammates by generating defensive attention, and assist points per 75 possessions (91st percentile).
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Schroder’s overall playmaking talent grade is in the 85th percentile, a solid number in a vacuum. However, when comparing Schroder’s playmaking proficiency to his peers (guards making approximately $20 million per year), he is again a class below his contemporaries. For reference, LaVine’s playmaking talent grade is in the 89th percentile, VanVleet is in the 93rd percentile, and Brogdon is in the 94th percentile.
To take that next step as a playmaker, Schroder not only needs to prove that he can generate scoring opportunities for his teammates over an extended period but needs to clean up his passing efficiency. According to Bball Index, his -0.77 passing efficiency grade ranks in the 16th percentile and is the facet of playmaking that he needs to work on the most.
3. Improved on-ball defense
One area where Dennis Schroder compares favorably to other guards at a similar price-point is his defensive ability. Of the guards repeatedly mentioned in this article, Schroder’s Defensive LEBRON ranking is 2nd and in the 54th percentile, behind Fred VanVleet.
Of particular note is his loose-ball recovery rate of 82.4% (95th percentile), a testament to how much effort Schroder puts into the dirty work.
He also ranks highly for steals per 75 possessions (90th percentile).
These numbers are all the more impressive when you realize that:
- Schroder is a starter on the league’s #1 ranked defense and;
- Defensively, Schroder spends 23.2% of his time guarding primary ball-handlers (86th percentile), meaning that coach Frank Vogel isn’t hiding Schroder on defense.
However, there is room for improvement.
His three-point-contests per 75 possessions are in the 22nd percentile, and his real adjusted turnover rate is in the 33rd percentile, less-than-ideal numbers for a point guard.
Furthermore, while, unlike a big man, it’s not as crucial for your point guard to be an elite defensive player, having a defensively strong point guard does alleviate some pressure from the interior.
Any team that signs Schroder to a big contract will be doing so knowing that he’s merely an average perimeter defender, a usable piece in a good defensive scheme, but not one who’ll elevate it to new levels.
Despite the tone of this article, this author believes that Dennis Schroder is an excellent, well-above-average basketball player. However, when comparing his basketball abilities to his peers who are earning north of $20 million per year, the thing that stands out is that they’re all elite in one or more areas.
For Schroder to be worth more than $21 million like some of his peers, he needs to excel as a shot creator, a lockdown defender, or a passer. While he’s been a solid piece for the Los Angeles Lakers, he’s not outstanding at any of those previously mentioned skills. He thus needs to take significant strides between now and the end of the season if he expects to get paid a more lucrative contract than the extension he declined.
While it’s certainly disappointing that Schroder almost definitely won’t be a Laker next season, fans can take solace in the fact that the front office dodged a bullet by not overpaying for his services.