Following Friday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers, the Los Angeles Lakers fell into seventh place in the Western Conference and are now on course for a play-in game, or perhaps even two, to qualify for the playoffs. A win over the Phoenix Suns on Sunday did not change that reality.
Is it time for fans to give up on championship hopes for this season and start waiting for next year?
Well, not quite yet. Although there isn’t great cause for optimism, the Los Angeles Lakers are still alive. And more importantly, there is still at least a chance that they could repeat.
The Lakers are by design an extremely top-heavy team. When Magic Johnson was in charge, he strongly believed that the club needed to acquire at least two superstars and then surround them with competent role players.
The first step, of course, was to sign LeBron James as a free agent. After Magic abruptly resigned, his successor Rob Pelinka continued to implement Johnson’s plan by trading for Anthony Davis.
It is no secret that the Lakers hopes for a title are thoroughly dependent on that duo. So it shouldn’t have surprised anyone that when AD missed 35 games and LeBron had to sit out 24 (and counting) due to injuries that the team would tumble in the standings.
Fans are understandably frustrated. Some blame the coach, Frank Vogel, but he has done all he possibly could to keep the ship afloat. And Vogel knows above all else that the playoffs present an entirely different challenge than the regular season, so he has experimented with various player combinations to figure out in advance what will work best in the postseason.
Other fans blame players like Marc Gasol, Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. But it is unrealistic to expect them to become stars overnight in the absence of Davis and James.
In the NBA, the biggest difference between all-star players and good players is not necessarily talent. Often it boils down to consistency. All-stars are solid and often great, night in, night out, with only a few off-games scattered throughout the season.
Good players like Kuzma and KCP have frequent ups and downs. Fans that cite their inconsistencies as a reason for the team’s losses misunderstand that they are role players rather than stars.
Many fans also pinned great hopes on center Andre Drummond, who the Lakers acquired after midseason. Drummond is an outstanding rebounder and seems like a good guy and good teammate. But offensively, he misses far too many easy shots. He relies almost exclusively on overpowering his opponent. That works well when he plays against a smaller center.
But against the likes of Nikola Jokic or Rudy Gobert, he has been rendered totally ineffective. Overall, for a big man who takes virtually all his shots within six feet of the basket, his 53% field goal percentage is decidedly unimpressive. Lakers teammate Montrezl Harrell, for instance, is shooting 62%.
Defensively, Drummond is always willing to switch out on the pick and roll. But frequently his switches result in easy layups or dunks for the opposing center. That occurred far too often against Dallas, for example, when Dwight Powell, who averages under 6 points a game, scored a season-high 25 against the Lakers.
Drummond is also not a big-time rim protector. With LA he is averaging 0.8 blocks in 25 minutes a game. That’s the same amount as Harrell blocks in 23 minutes. And the much-maligned Gasol blocks 1.1 shots in 19 minutes.
So Drummond is clearly not the savior many fans hoped he would be. Instead he is yet another role player who can complement the stars.
What then is the cause for hope for the Los Angeles Lakers?
To begin with, Davis started to look like his old dominant self against both Portland and Phoenix. Whether he can sustain that same high level of play throughout a long playoff run is yet to be determined.
But let’s assume for the moment that he can. Then the Los Angeles Lakers title hopes are pinned squarely on the chest, or perhaps more accurately the ankle, of LeBron James. His first attempt at a comeback fell far short of expectations. Since then he has reportedly visited an ankle specialist and plans to return to the lineup this coming week.
Will he be physically able to play like the James of old? Nobody knows for sure, but we’re about to find out.
If either AD or LeBron are unable to play up to their capabilities, then the Lakers have virtually no shot at winning the title. Without either of their two stars, they won’t get far in the playoffs.
But if both Davis and James can play up to, or at least close to, their very high level, the Lakers have as good a chance as any team. That’s even true if they end up having to play that dreaded play-in game. Does anyone think that a Laker team at full strength can’t win one home game in two tries against some combination of Golden State, Memphis and San Antonio?
None of the four other primary Western Conference contenders has ever won a title, nor has any even made it to the Finals this century. Utah has flamed out early the last several years. Both the Jazz and Nuggets have a single player who has participated in the Finals, reserves Jordan Clarkson and JaVale McGee respectively.
Phoenix is led by the veteran Chris Paul, who has his own checkered playoff history. And although Kawhi Leonard has played on two title teams, he now plays for the Clippers, which has NEVER in franchise history won more than one playoff round.
So if LeBron is indeed able to play at full strength, the Los Angeles Lakers should have as good a chance, if not better, than any other conference foe. As has been the case for much of his career, his team’s chances all depend on LeBron James.
All statistics courtesy of www.basketball-reference.com.