Los Angeles Lakers: Predictions for first round of NBA Playoffs

The NBA’s first-round is almost ready to start. But before projecting the winners, here’s a recap of the Los Angeles Lakers play-in game, in case you missed it.

The Lakers barely escaped the play-in game with a narrow victory over the Warriors on Wednesday night. LA approached the opening minutes cautiously while Golden State played with Game 7-like intensity. At halftime, the Lakers were lucky to trail by just 13. The lead could easily have been 20 or even 25 points.

The Lakers survived nightmarish first-half performances from their two stars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who combined to shoot just 3-19 in the first 24 minutes. LeBron showed the after-effects of his ankle injury, especially with a seeming inability to lift off the ground very much.

The Warriors defense deserves some credit, but the Lakers as a team were ice cold with two exceptions. Alex Caruso kept them in the game with 12 points on 5-5 shooting while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope swished two 3-pointers.

A combination of much more active Laker defense, holding the Warriors to 45 points and causing 15 turnovers in the second half, and the awakening of LeBron and AD, who together shot 14-22 in the final 24 minutes, keyed the victory. James of course came back to convert the game-winning three-pointer.

Coach Frank Vogel helped rachet up the defense by playing AD for most of the half at center. He surrounded him with LeBron and some combination of intense play from Caruso, KCP, Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma and Wesley Matthews.

Vogel once again proved that he is the master of playoff matchups. Choosing from a roster of at least 12 quality players, he pushed all the right second-half buttons, much as he did last postseason in Orlando. Although Montrezl Harrell played only 9 minutes, youngster Talen Horton-Tucker just 5, and Marc Gasol, Ben McLemore and Markieff Morris never left the bench, all five will undoubtedly play important roles in future games.

A key play that went largely unnoticed occurred early in the fourth quarter typified the Lakers’ effort. Caruso banged a corner three attempt off the side of the backboard. But rather than sulk, he hustled back on defense against all-pro Steph Curry. Outside the three-point line near the sideline, AC slapped the ball against Curry’s leg, causing it to land out-of-bounds for a Warrior turnover and a new Lakers possession.

If the Lakers are going to make a legitimate championship run, they will have to amp up the intensity from the opening tip. They will be facing teams with more talented and deeper squads than the Warriors. They also hope that AD’s leg and LBJ’s ankle will hold up through the rigors of the postseason.

The Los Angeles Lakers were a good representation of the 2020-21 season.

This season should be most noted as the Year of the Injury. It is a near certainty that never before in NBA history have so many stars missed at least 25% of the season.

The short offseason is probably the biggest culprit, but whatever the reason, here’s a list of star players by team who sat out at least ¼ of the games this season:

Western Conference

Davis and James – Lakers, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George – Clippers, Donovan Mitchell & Michael Conley – Jazz, Jamal Murray – Nuggets (out for the playoffs), Kristaps Porzingis – Mavs, CJ McCollum & Josuf Nurkic – Blazers, Klay Thompson – Warriors (out for the playoffs), Karl-Anthony Towns & D’Angelo Russell – Timberwolves, John Wall – Rockets.

Eastern Conference

Joel Embiid – 76ers, Kevin Durant & James Harden – Nets, Derrick Rose – Knicks, Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo (out for the playoffs) & Goran Dragic – Heat, Danilo Gallinari – Hawks, Gordon Hayward – Hornets, Kemba Walker – Celtics, Kyle Lowry – Raptors, Kevin Love – Cavs

Uncertainty surrounds the ability of some of the above players, including AD and LeBron, to make a sustained comeback from their injuries in the postseason. That doubt, along with the inevitability that other stars will miss playoff games due to new injuries, makes predicting the outcome even more difficult than usual.

This was also one of the most competitive seasons in decades. Seven different teams won at least 60% of their games. Each of those teams believe they have a legitimate shot to win the title. Six others, including the Los Angeles Lakers, won between 55 and 59%.

It is safe to predict that the playoffs will be hotly contested with many games decided in the last minute or even 10 seconds. The teams with the most stars left standing should go the furthest.

As for predicting results, here’s an attempt to pick the round one winners.